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Upesciems vs Vilki/Marupe

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup 2010/2011
Sat, Jul 17, 2010
1 - 2
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vilki/Marupe in this Latvian Cup 2010/2011 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Upesciems
15%
Draws
57%
Vilki/Marupe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vilki/Marupe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Vilki/Marupe haven't matched Upesciems's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Upesciems have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Vilki/Marupe, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 83.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Upesciems Clean Sheet 15%
Vilki/Marupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Upesciems Vilki/Marupe
Matches Played 20 5
Wins 8 2
Draws 0 0
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.8 1
Goals Conceded 2.35 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.52 1.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2010 Latvian Cup
Upesciems vs Vilki/Marupe
1:2
Oct 24, 2009 Latvian Cup
Vilki/Marupe vs Upesciems
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Upesciems 31 / 100
Vilki/Marupe 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Upesciems Vilki/Marupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vilki/Marupe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Vilki/Marupe conceded in 80% of 5 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Upesciems scored in 74% of their last 19 games.

Away concern: Vilki/Marupe has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Upesciems VS Vilki/Marupe
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.67
100% Over 1.5 67%
88% Over 2.5 67%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Upesciems

(Home)
22 May
Upesciems
0 : 3
Dobele Allegro
18 Jul
Upesciems
2 : 4
Speks
03 Aug
Upesciems
1 : 3
FK Limbazi
17 Jun
Bebri
3 : 0
Upesciems
02 Jun
Upesciems
5 : 2
Lubana
Page 1 of 4

Vilki/Marupe

(Away)
05 Jul
Vilki/Marupe
0 : 3
Alberts JDFS
22 Aug
Vilki/Marupe
0 : 1
FK 1625 Liepaja
17 Jul
Upesciems
1 : 2
Vilki/Marupe
24 Oct
Vilki/Marupe
2 : 3
Upesciems
17 Oct
Vilki/Marupe
1 : 0
Priekuli

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
FK Daugava Riga 3
Valmiera 1
RFS 1
Ventspils 2
Skonto 0
FC Daugava Daugavpils 1
Jelgava 0
FK Liepaja 1
Semi-finals
FC Daugava Daugavpils 0
Ventspils 2
FK Liepaja 2
FK Daugava Riga 1
Final
Ventspils 3
FK Liepaja 1