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Urgatzi vs Gernika Club

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Urgatzi play Gernika Club in the Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021. Gernika Club are favorites here. Recently, Urgatzi averaged 0.53 goals scored and 3.03 conceded. Gernika Club averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Urgatzi won 0, Gernika Club won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 6, 2021 ended 0:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Urgatzi and 1.24 for Gernika Club. This points to a Gernika Club double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Urgatzi
20%
Draws
67%
Gernika Club
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gernika Club

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Urgatzi picked up more points recently compared to Gernika Club.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.24 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Urgatzi Clean Sheet 19%
Gernika Club Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Urgatzi Gernika Club
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 3 14
Draws 2 11
Losses 25 11
Goals Scored 0.53 1.22
Goals Conceded 3.03 1

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Urgatzi vs Gernika Club
0:5
Nov 14, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Gernika Club vs Urgatzi
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Urgatzi 16 / 100
Gernika Club 63 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Urgatzi Gernika Club

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gernika Club Win (2)
Secondary Pick Gernika Club & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +160%
20.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Urgatzi attacking → ← attacking Gernika Club

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Urgatzi scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Gernika Club let in goals in 53% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Urgatzi went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Gernika Club lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 53
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gernika Club20134339:1643
2Real Sociedad C20124448:2740
3Sestao20123540:1339
4SD Deusto20113630:2436
5Santutxu FC2085720:2329
6Beasain2069520:1427
7Tolosa2066821:2624
8Aurrera Ondarroa20551023:3120
9Balmaseda2039822:2718
10Somorrostro20451120:3117
11Urgatzi20311611:6210
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1CD Vitoria2098320:435
2Urduliz FT2098328:1835
3Pasaia2097422:1434
4Basconia2079424:1530
5Anaitasuna FT2079420:1930
6San Ignacio2078519:1929
7Santurtzi2065918:2723
8SCD Durango2057817:2022
9Sodupe2048821:2320
10CD Ariznabarra20371012:2816
11Lagun Onak20361117:3115