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US Venafro vs Sarnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

87' Event
Mancino G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G game between US Venafro and Sarnese finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sarnese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
US Venafro
30%
Draws
64%
Sarnese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sarnese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Sarnese carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
US Venafro Clean Sheet 12%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric US Venafro Sarnese
Matches Played 5 29
Wins 0 11
Draws 1 12
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 0.6 1.62
Goals Conceded 2 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group G
US Venafro vs Sarnese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

US Venafro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Mancino G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 0.95

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

US Venafro 35 / 100
Sarnese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
US Venafro Sarnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sarnese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sarnese has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

US Venafro found the back of the net in 40% of recent matches (5 games).

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

US Venafro went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

US Venafro VS Sarnese
0.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.67 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

US Venafro

(Home)
27 Sept
US Venafro
2 : 3
Budoni Calcio
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
13 Sept
Unipomezia
1 : 1
US Venafro
06 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Trastevere Calcio

Sarnese

(Away)
27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2
Sarnese
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
2 Paganese 5 3 1 1 13:7 10
3 Monastir 5 3 1 1 12:8 10
4 Trastevere Calcio 5 3 1 1 8:10 10
5 Certosa V. Campagnano 5 3 0 2 8:3 9
6 Unipomezia 5 2 2 1 8:5 8
7 Albalonga 5 2 2 1 9:7 8
8 Ossese 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
9 Budoni Calcio 5 2 1 2 9:8 7
10 Anzio Calcio 1924 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
11 Gelbison 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
12 Afragolese 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
13 Aranova 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
14 Citta di Anagni 5 2 0 3 7:10 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
16 Latte Dolce 5 0 2 3 6:11 2
17 Atl. Lodigiani 5 0 1 4 7:14 1
18 US Venafro 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)