Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USA U23 vs Japan U23

World World

Friendly International 2024 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, KS
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Fujio S.
(Penalty)
25'
Sub
Yamamoto R. In: Kawasaki S.
Out: Yamamoto R.
45'
Tessmann T.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between USA U23 and Japan U23 finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Japan U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
USA U23
15%
Draws
58%
Japan U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Japan U23 a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
USA U23 Clean Sheet 14%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA U23 Japan U23
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 13 22
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 3
Goals Scored 1.22 2.32
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 12, 2024 Friendly International
USA U23 vs Japan U23
0:2
Oct 18, 2023 Friendly International
USA U23 vs Japan U23
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.34
Avg xA / game 0.22

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Hosoya M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA U23 19 / 100
Japan U23 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA U23 Japan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

USA U23 scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

USA U23 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Japan U23 has conceded goals in 43% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

USA U23 VS Japan U23
0.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

USA U23

(Home)
13 Jul
USA U23
1 : 0
Paraguay U23
12 Jun
USA U23
0 : 2
Japan U23
25 Mar
France U23
2 : 2
USA U23
22 Mar
USA U23
3 : 0
Guinea U23
21 Nov
Morocco U23
1 : 0
USA U23
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Japan U23

(Away)
16 Sept
Japan U23
2 : 0
Hong Kong U23
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
20 Jan
Japan U23
1 : 0
South Korea U23
16 Jan
Japan U23
2 : 1
Jordan U23
13 Jan
Japan U23
2 : 0
Qatar U23
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