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USA vs Costa Rica Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International 2025 Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, FL
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
White B.
Assist: Luna D.
39'
van der Putten S.
40'
Robinson M.

AI Match Summary

USA in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored USA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
USA
15%
Draws
21%
Costa Rica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • USA have won more games recently than Costa Rica.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on USA taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors USA here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
USA Clean Sheet 16%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Costa Rica
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 10
Draws 1 9
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 2 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.21 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2025 Gold Cup
USA vs Costa Rica
3:2
Jan 23, 2025 Friendly International
USA vs Costa Rica
3:0
Mar 31, 2022 World Championship
Costa Rica vs USA
2:0
Oct 13, 2021 World Championship
USA vs Costa Rica
2:1
Jun 9, 2021 Friendly International
USA vs Costa Rica
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer White B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Clark C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.7
Avg xA / game 1.1

Costa Rica Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 84 / 100
Costa Rica 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Costa Rica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Costa Rica let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: USA stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Costa Rica
2 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.43
100% Over 1.5 86%
63% Over 2.5 71%
50% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
30 Sept
USA
4 : 2
Chile
26 Sept
USA
4 : 1
Peru
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
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Costa Rica

(Away)
02 Oct
Nicaragua
0 : 3
Costa Rica
27 Sept
Haiti
2 : 0
Costa Rica
25 Sept
Costa Rica
3 : 4
Curacao
10 Jun
England
3 : 0
Costa Rica
01 Jun
Colombia
3 : 1
Costa Rica
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