Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USA vs South Korea

World World

Friendly International 2025 Sports Illustrated Stadium
USA Logo

USA

0 - 2
FT
South Korea Logo

South Korea

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

USA play South Korea in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, USA averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. South Korea averaged 1.84 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. In past meetings, USA won 2, South Korea won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 6, 2025 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for USA and 1.56 for South Korea. This points to a South Korea double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
USA
15%
Draws
44%
South Korea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: South Korea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • USA picked up more points recently compared to South Korea.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
USA Clean Sheet 15%
South Korea Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA South Korea
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 18 19
Draws 1 6
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.87 1.84
Goals Conceded 1.45 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Friendly International
USA vs South Korea
0:2
Feb 1, 2014 Friendly International
USA vs South Korea
2:0
Jun 10, 2002 World Championship
South Korea vs USA
1:1
Jan 17, 2002 Gold Cup
USA vs South Korea
2:1
Dec 9, 2001 Friendly International
South Korea vs USA
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

South Korea Compare

Top Goalscorer Son Heung-Min
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee Dong-Gyeong
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 40 / 100
South Korea 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA South Korea

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: South Korea or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

USA attacking → ← attacking South Korea

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

South Korea let in goals in 48% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

USA went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

South Korea lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 63
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88