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USA vs Turkey

World World

Friendly International 2025 Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
McGlynn J.
Assist: Tillman M.
24' Event
Guler A.
27' Event
Akturkoglu K.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between USA and Turkey finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Turkey.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
USA
15%
Draws
42%
Turkey
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Turkey carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
USA Clean Sheet 13%
Turkey Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Turkey
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 18
Draws 1 4
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.87 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 26, 2026 World Championship
Turkey vs USA
3:2
Jun 7, 2025 Friendly International
USA vs Turkey
1:2
Jun 1, 2014 Friendly International
USA vs Turkey
2:1
May 29, 2010 Friendly International
USA vs Turkey
2:1
Jun 19, 2003 FIFA Confederations Cup
Turkey vs USA
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer McGlynn J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Turkey Compare

Top Goalscorer Guler A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Akturkoglu K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 31 / 100
Turkey 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Turkey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Turkey has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: USA stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Turkey
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
13 Jun
USA
4 : 1
Paraguay
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Turkey

(Away)
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
20 Jun
Turkey
0 : 1
Paraguay
14 Jun
Australia
2 : 0
Turkey
06 Jun
Venezuela
1 : 2
Turkey
01 Jun
Turkey
4 : 0
North Macedonia
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