Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USA vs Uruguay

World World

Friendly International 2025 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Berhalter S.
Assist: Dest S.
20' Event
Freeman A.
Assist: Berhalter S.
31' Event
Freeman A.
Assist: Trusty A.

AI Match Summary

USA in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored USA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
USA
6%
Draws
4%
Uruguay
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to USA lately — more wins on the board than Uruguay.
  • Model gives USA a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
USA Clean Sheet 68%
Uruguay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Uruguay
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 19 11
Draws 1 13
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 2 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2025 Friendly International
USA vs Uruguay
5:1
Jul 2, 2024 Copa América
USA vs Uruguay
0:1
Jun 5, 2022 Friendly International
USA vs Uruguay
0:0
Sep 11, 2019 Friendly International
USA vs Uruguay
1:1
May 12, 2002 Friendly International
USA vs Uruguay
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Freeman A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Berhalter S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Uruguay Compare

Top Goalscorer de Arrascaeta G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 95 / 100
Uruguay 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Uruguay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA scored in 82% of their last 34 games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

USA went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Uruguay's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Uruguay
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
13 Jun
USA
4 : 1
Paraguay
Page 1 of 7

Uruguay

(Away)
27 Jun
Uruguay
0 : 1
Spain
21 Jun
Uruguay
2 : 2
Cape Verde
15 Jun
Saudi Arabia
1 : 1
Uruguay
31 Mar
Algeria
0 : 0
Uruguay
27 Mar
England
1 : 1
Uruguay
Page 1 of 6