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USA W vs Japan W Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International Women PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Lavelle R.
Assist: Rodman T.
46'
Sub
Kitagawa H. In: Moriya M.
Out: Kitagawa H.
46'
Sub
Matsukubo M. In: Ueki R.
Out: Matsukubo M.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International Women game between USA W and Japan W finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward USA W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
USA W
15%
Draws
49%
Japan W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • USA W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Japan W a 49% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
USA W Clean Sheet 10%
Japan W Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA W Japan W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 23 18
Draws 1 4
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 2.45 2.97
Goals Conceded 0.48 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.83 2.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
3:0
Apr 15, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
0:1
Apr 11, 2026 Friendly International Women
USA W vs Japan W
2:1
Feb 27, 2025 SheBelieves Cup Women
USA W vs Japan W
1:2
Aug 3, 2024 Olympic Games Women
USA W vs Japan W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lavelle R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Heaps L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.41

Japan W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ueki R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.03
Avg xA / game 1.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA W 10 / 100
Japan W 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA W Japan W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA W's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

USA W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Japan W let in goals in 48% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

USA W VS Japan W
1.29 Goals Scored 3.88
0.57 Goals Conceded 0.38
43% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

USA W

(Home)
10 Jun
Brazil W
0 : 1
USA W
06 Jun
Brazil W
2 : 1
USA W
18 Apr
USA W
3 : 0
Japan W
15 Apr
USA W
0 : 1
Japan W
11 Apr
USA W
2 : 1
Japan W
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Japan W

(Away)
25 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Philippines W
21 Sept
Japan W
4 : 0
Chinese Taipei W
17 Sept
Vietnam W
0 : 8
Japan W
14 Sept
Japan W
8 : 0
Thailand W
09 Jun
Japan W
0 : 1
South Africa W
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