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USD Casatese vs Arconatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Giangaspero F.
48' Event
Isella M.
83' Event
Meleddu R. M.

AI Match Summary

USD Casatese in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored USD Casatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
USD Casatese
30%
Draws
23%
Arconatese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: USD Casatese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • USD Casatese have won more games recently than Arconatese.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on USD Casatese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 20%
Arconatese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Casatese Arconatese
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 6
Draws 9 9
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.47 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.59
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group D
USD Casatese vs Arconatese
2:1
Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Arconatese vs USD Casatese
0:0
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Arconatese
1:1
Mar 24, 2024 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Arconatese
1:1
Nov 12, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Arconatese vs USD Casatese
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Isella M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Meleddu R. M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Arconatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Giangaspero F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.54
Avg xA / game 0.33

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Casatese 40 / 100
Arconatese 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Casatese Arconatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USD Casatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USD Casatese's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Arconatese let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Arconatese's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

USD Casatese VS Arconatese
1.5 Goals Scored 0.8
0.38 Goals Conceded 2
38% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Casatese

(Home)
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
23 Aug
Piacenza
2 : 1
USD Casatese
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
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Arconatese

(Away)
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
12 Sept
Arconatese
1 : 1
Correggese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
13 Aug
Arconatese
2 : 2
AC Leon
04 May
Breno
4 : 1
Arconatese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 3 3 0 0 10:1 9
2 Pro Patria 3 3 0 0 7:3 9
3 Lentigione 3 3 0 0 6:3 9
4 Pro Sesto 3 2 0 1 7:3 6
5 Correggese 3 1 2 0 4:3 5
6 Sant'Angelo 3 1 2 0 4:3 5
7 Varesina 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
8 USD Casatese 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
9 Cittadella Vis Modena 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
10 Castellanzese 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
11 Oltrepo 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
12 Pavia 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
13 Varese FC 3 0 2 1 1:3 2
14 Solbiatese 3 0 2 1 0:2 2
15 Tropical Coriano 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
16 Crema 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
17 Arconatese 3 0 1 2 2:8 1
18 US Pontedera 3 0 0 3 3:9 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)