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USD Casatese vs Sant'Angelo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Citterio G.
25' Event
Premoli G.
60' Event
Toldo A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between USD Casatese and Sant'Angelo finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sant'Angelo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
USD Casatese
35%
Draws
45%
Sant'Angelo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sant'Angelo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Sant'Angelo haven't matched USD Casatese's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Sant'Angelo have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 20%
Sant'Angelo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Casatese Sant'Angelo
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 15 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.47 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group D
USD Casatese vs Sant'Angelo
1:2
May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sant'Angelo vs USD Casatese
2:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Sant'Angelo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Citterio G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Sant'Angelo Compare

Top Goalscorer Premoli G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Toldo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Casatese 32 / 100
Sant'Angelo 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Casatese Sant'Angelo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: USD Casatese scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Sant'Angelo conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: USD Casatese stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USD Casatese VS Sant'Angelo
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Casatese

(Home)
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
23 Aug
Piacenza
2 : 1
USD Casatese
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
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Sant'Angelo

(Away)
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Correggese
1 : 1
Sant'Angelo
23 Aug
Rovato Vertovese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
03 May
Lentigione
2 : 2
Sant'Angelo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 4 4 0 0 11:1 12
2 Pro Patria 4 4 0 0 10:3 12
3 Pro Sesto 4 3 0 1 10:3 9
4 Lentigione 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
5 Sant'Angelo 4 2 2 0 6:2 8
6 USD Casatese 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
8 Castellanzese 4 2 0 2 7:4 6
9 Varese FC 4 1 2 1 4:3 5
10 Varesina 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
11 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
12 Correggese 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
13 Pavia 3 0 3 0 0:0 3
14 Oltrepo 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
15 Solbiatese 4 0 2 2 1:6 2
16 Crema 4 0 1 3 1:8 1
17 Arconatese 4 0 1 3 2:11 1
18 US Pontedera 4 0 0 4 3:12 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)