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USM Alger vs Paradou Prediction & H2H Stats

Algeria Algeria

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade du 5 Juillet 1962, Algiers
USM Alger Logo

USM Alger

4 - 2
FT
Paradou Logo

Paradou

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Khaldi A.
32'
Chetti I.
45' Event
Ramdaoui M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between USM Alger and Paradou finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward USM Alger.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
USM Alger
35%
Draws
20%
Paradou
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: USM Alger

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Paradou's 1.48 goals per match outpaces what USM Alger have produced (1.13).
  • USM Alger are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
USM Alger Clean Sheet 20%
Paradou Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USM Alger Paradou
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 14 3
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 1.13 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Ligue 1
USM Alger vs Paradou
4:2
Sep 6, 2025 Ligue 1
Paradou vs USM Alger
0:1
May 17, 2025 Ligue 1
Paradou vs USM Alger
3:1
Jan 28, 2025 Ligue 1
USM Alger vs Paradou
1:1
Feb 11, 2024 Ligue 1
USM Alger vs Paradou
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USM Alger Compare

Top Goalscorer Benayad R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Khaldi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Paradou Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramdaoui M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USM Alger 85 / 100
Paradou 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USM Alger Paradou

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USM Alger Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

USM Alger went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: USM Alger scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Paradou's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

USM Alger VS Paradou
1.25 Goals Scored 0.83
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 67%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

USM Alger

(Home)
19 Sept
Olympique Akbou
2 : 3
USM Alger
10 Sept
USM Alger
2 : 0
JS El Biar
04 Sept
Khenchela
0 : 0
USM Alger
15 Aug
Club Africain
0 : 0
USM Alger
06 Jun
Oran
2 : 2
USM Alger
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Paradou

(Away)
26 Sept
Paradou
2 : 1
Telaghema
18 Sept
Khroub
0 : 0
Paradou
05 Jun
Paradou
0 : 2
ES Setif
22 May
USM Alger
4 : 2
Paradou
19 May
Rouisset
2 : 1
Paradou
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 MC Alger 30 20 5 5 41:18 65
2 Saoura 30 16 7 7 40:26 55
3 CR Belouizdad 30 14 11 5 47:24 53
4 Oran 30 14 7 9 36:31 49
5 Kabylie 30 11 12 7 40:31 45
6 Olympique Akbou 30 12 9 9 34:31 45
7 Khenchela 30 12 8 10 37:37 44
8 ES Ben Aknoun 30 11 10 9 41:39 43
9 Constantine 30 11 10 9 35:30 43
10 USM Alger 30 8 15 7 34:29 39
11 ES Setif 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
12 Rouisset 30 9 9 12 30:35 36
13 ASO Chlef 30 9 7 14 26:31 34
14 Paradou 30 7 3 20 35:54 24
15 Mostaganem 30 4 7 19 18:52 19
16 El Bayadh 30 2 11 17 17:40 17
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)