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USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Botola 2
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AI Match Summary

The Botola 2 game between USM Oujda and Mouloudia Oujda finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward USM Oujda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
USM Oujda
35%
Draws
24%
Mouloudia Oujda
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: USM Oujda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • USM Oujda carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Botola 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
USM Oujda Clean Sheet 68%
Mouloudia Oujda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USM Oujda Mouloudia Oujda
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 7
Draws 8 12
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1.18
Goals Conceded 1 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Botola 2
USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda
2:1
Jun 6, 2026 Botola 2
Mouloudia Oujda vs USM Oujda
2:1
Dec 6, 2025 Botola 2
USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda
0:3
May 3, 2025 Botola 2
USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda
0:0
Dec 28, 2024 Botola 2
Mouloudia Oujda vs USM Oujda
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USM Oujda 41 / 100
Mouloudia Oujda 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USM Oujda Mouloudia Oujda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USM Oujda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mouloudia Oujda let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

USM Oujda's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: USM Oujda stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USM Oujda VS Mouloudia Oujda
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

USM Oujda

(Home)
04 Oct
Chabab Mohammedia
0 : 1
USM Oujda
27 Sept
USM Oujda
2 : 1
Mouloudia Oujda
05 Jul
Widad Temara
0 : 1
USM Oujda
27 Jun
USM Oujda
1 : 1
Chabab Atlas Khenifra
20 Jun
Jeunesse Sportive Soualem
2 : 0
USM Oujda
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Mouloudia Oujda

(Away)
03 Oct
Mouloudia Oujda
2 : 1
Dcheira
27 Sept
USM Oujda
2 : 1
Mouloudia Oujda
05 Jul
Mouloudia Oujda
1 : 1
Wydad Fes
27 Jun
Amal Tiznit
1 : 1
Mouloudia Oujda
20 Jun
Mouloudia Oujda
1 : 1
Chabab Benguerir
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wydad Fes 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Yacoub El Mansour 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
3 Ittihad Khemisset 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
4 USM Oujda 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
5 Jeunesse Massira 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
6 Olympique de Safi 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
7 Olympique Khouribga 2 1 0 1 4:1 3
8 Chabab Benguerir 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
9 Mouloudia Oujda 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
10 Dcheira 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
11 Jeunesse Sportive Soualem 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
12 US Boujaad 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
13 Stade Marocain 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
14 KAC Kenitra 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
15 Chabab Mohammedia 2 0 0 2 0:3 0
16 Chabab Atlas Khenifra 2 0 0 2 1:6 0
Promotion - Botola Pro 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Botola Pro (Relegation)
Relegation - Botola 2 (Relegation)