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Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol Prediction & H2H Stats

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Third League - North-East 2025/2026 game between Ustrem Donchevo and Dorostol finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ustrem Donchevo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ustrem Donchevo
20%
Draws
40%
Dorostol
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Dorostol haven't matched Ustrem Donchevo's recent run of results.
  • Ustrem Donchevo are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Third League - North-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 88%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 88%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%
Dorostol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ustrem Donchevo Dorostol
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 4
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 21
Goals Scored 2 0.9
Goals Conceded 2.3 2.45
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol
4:1
Nov 1, 2025 Third League - North-East
Dorostol vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:0
May 17, 2025 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol
1:1
Nov 16, 2024 Third League - North-East
Dorostol vs Ustrem Donchevo
0:1
May 26, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol
4:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ustrem Donchevo 65 / 100
Dorostol 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ustrem Donchevo Dorostol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ustrem Donchevo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Dorostol let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Dorostol lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ustrem Donchevo VS Dorostol
2 Goals Scored 1
3.38 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
88% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ustrem Donchevo

(Home)
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1
Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2
Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4
Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3
Svetkavitsa 2014
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Dorostol

(Away)
19 Sept
Devnya 2005
2 : 2
Dorostol
06 Sept
Benkovski
5 : 1
Dorostol
29 Aug
Dorostol
0 : 3
Volov Shumen
26 Aug
FK Riltzi
1 : 0
Dorostol
22 Aug
Dorostol
0 : 4
Svetkavitsa 2014
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chernomorets Balchik 32 27 4 1 92:14 85
2 Ludogorets III 32 25 4 3 101:19 79
3 Septemvri Tervel 32 25 3 4 89:22 78
4 Volov Shumen 32 23 3 6 93:28 72
5 Chernolomets 32 20 3 9 78:43 63
6 Benkovski 32 18 6 8 68:40 60
7 Cherno More II 32 16 7 9 65:44 55
8 Ustrem Donchevo 32 17 3 12 73:67 54
9 Olympic Varna 32 10 6 16 58:80 36
10 Aksakovo 32 9 4 19 40:68 31
11 Fratria II 32 8 6 18 40:71 30
12 Svetkavitsa 2014 32 7 8 17 26:48 29
13 Botev Novi Pazar 32 8 5 19 34:69 29
14 Dorostol 32 8 4 20 29:67 28
15 Spartak Varna II 32 7 5 20 42:72 26
16 FK Riltzi 32 6 4 22 31:83 22
17 Svetkavitsa 32 0 1 31 5:129 1
Promotion - Vtora liga 2025/2026 (Main)