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Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Dragoevo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ustrem Donchevo host Septemvri Dragoevo in the Third League - North-East. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Septemvri Dragoevo have shipped 2.1 goals a game lately, while Ustrem Donchevo have conceded 2.17 and scored 2.1. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (2.06 xG vs 2.31) point toward Ustrem Donchevo. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Ustrem Donchevo
20%
Draws
29%
Septemvri Dragoevo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ustrem Donchevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Septemvri Dragoevo haven't matched Ustrem Donchevo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ustrem Donchevo's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Third League - North-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%
Septemvri Dragoevo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ustrem Donchevo Septemvri Dragoevo
Matches Played 30 10
Wins 13 3
Draws 4 2
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 2.1 1.3
Goals Conceded 2.17 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ustrem Donchevo 56 / 100
Septemvri Dragoevo 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ustrem Donchevo Septemvri Dragoevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ustrem Donchevo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Septemvri Dragoevo let in goals in 90% of their last 10 matches.

Recent resilience: Ustrem Donchevo stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Septemvri Dragoevo's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ustrem Donchevo VS Septemvri Dragoevo
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
3.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ustrem Donchevo

(Home)
17 Oct
Fratria II
1 : 2
Ustrem Donchevo
10 Oct
Ustrem Donchevo
4 : 3
Dorostol
03 Oct
Devnya 2005
2 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1
Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2
Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6

Septemvri Dragoevo

(Away)
21 Oct
Septemvri Dragoevo
0 : 2
Botev Novi Pazar
17 Oct
Dorostol
0 : 1
Septemvri Dragoevo
10 Oct
Septemvri Dragoevo
0 : 2
Devnya 2005
03 Oct
Septemvri Tervel
3 : 0
Septemvri Dragoevo
26 Sept
Septemvri Dragoevo
1 : 1
Benkovski
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ludogorets III 10 8 1 1 25:5 25
2 Volov Shumen 10 7 1 2 29:10 22
3 Chernomorets Balchik 9 6 2 1 15:7 20
4 Svetkavitsa 2014 10 6 1 3 17:11 19
5 Chernolomets 10 5 3 2 22:9 18
6 Septemvri Tervel 8 4 3 1 13:8 15
7 Benkovski 8 4 1 3 16:12 13
8 Botev Novi Pazar 8 3 3 2 14:10 12
9 Devnya 2005 9 4 0 5 10:15 12
10 Cherno More II 9 3 2 4 14:11 11
11 Septemvri Dragoevo 10 3 2 5 13:21 11
12 FK Riltzi 9 3 1 5 10:20 10
13 Olympic Varna 9 3 0 6 16:24 9
14 Fratria II 9 3 0 6 10:26 9
15 Aksakovo 7 2 1 4 15:20 7
16 Ustrem Donchevo 10 2 1 7 19:30 7
17 Dorostol 9 0 0 9 5:24 0
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