Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Utrecht vs Heerenveen

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Sub
Engwanda A. In: Horemans S.
Out: Engwanda A.
46' Event
Stepanov A.
49'
Linday M.

AI Match Summary

Utrecht in this Eredivisie 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Utrecht
39%
Draws
30%
Heerenveen
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Heerenveen have won more games recently than Utrecht.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Heerenveen arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Utrecht, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Utrecht Clean Sheet 10%
Heerenveen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Utrecht Heerenveen
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 15
Draws 4 4
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.88 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Heerenveen
3:2
Feb 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs Utrecht
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Heerenveen
2:2
Mar 30, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Heerenveen
2:0
Feb 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Heerenveen vs Utrecht
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Utrecht Compare

Top Goalscorer Stepanov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader van der Hoorn M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Heerenveen Compare

Top Goalscorer Vente D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Trenskow J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Utrecht 30 / 100
Heerenveen 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Utrecht Heerenveen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HEE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Heerenveen conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Utrecht scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Utrecht has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Utrecht VS Heerenveen
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Utrecht

(Home)
17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2
V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Jul
Utrecht
0 : 1
Apollon Limassol
27 Jun
Utrecht
1 : 2
De Graafschap
24 May
Ajax
2 : 1
Utrecht
21 May
Utrecht
3 : 2
Heerenveen
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Heerenveen

(Away)
17 Jul
Club Brugge
2 : 3
Heerenveen
03 Jul
Heerenveen
7 : 2
De Graafschap
21 May
Utrecht
3 : 2
Heerenveen
17 May
Heerenveen
0 : 0
Ajax
11 May
NAC Breda
2 : 0
Heerenveen
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ajax2
Groningen0
Utrecht3
Heerenveen2
Final
Ajax2
Utrecht1