Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Utrecht vs Heerenveen

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Sub
Engwanda A. In: Horemans S.
Out: Engwanda A.
46' Event
Stepanov A.
49'
Linday M.

AI Match Summary

Utrecht in this Eredivisie 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Utrecht
35%
Draws
46%
Heerenveen
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Heerenveen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Heerenveen average 1.96 goals a game right now, well clear of Utrecht's 1.53.
  • Heerenveen are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Utrecht, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Utrecht Clean Sheet 10%
Heerenveen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Utrecht Heerenveen
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 12 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.53 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Heerenveen
3:2
Feb 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs Utrecht
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Heerenveen
2:2
Mar 30, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs Heerenveen
2:0
Feb 19, 2025 Club Friendly
Heerenveen vs Utrecht
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Utrecht Compare

Top Goalscorer Stepanov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader van der Hoorn M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Heerenveen Compare

Top Goalscorer Vente D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Trenskow J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Utrecht 22 / 100
Heerenveen 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Utrecht Heerenveen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Heerenveen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Heerenveen conceded in 85% of 27 recent games.

Utrecht scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Utrecht has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Utrecht VS Heerenveen
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Utrecht

(Home)
08 Sept
Utrecht
3 : 3
G.A. Eagles
30 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 6
PSV
22 Aug
Sparta Rotterdam
3 : 3
Utrecht
15 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 4
AZ Alkmaar
09 Aug
Groningen
2 : 1
Utrecht
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Heerenveen

(Away)
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3
AZ Alkmaar
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2
Heerenveen
22 Aug
Heerenveen
0 : 2
Zwolle
16 Aug
Ajax
2 : 2
Heerenveen
09 Aug
Heerenveen
1 : 0
Twente
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ajax 2
Groningen 0
Utrecht 3
Heerenveen 2
Final
Ajax 2
Utrecht 1