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Uzbekistan U19 vs Iran U19

Asia Asia

AFC Championship U19
Wed, Mar 3, 2021
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This AFC Championship U19 encounter between Uzbekistan U19 and Iran U19 promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Uzbekistan U19 averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in recent matches. Iran U19 shows a form average of 2.3 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Uzbekistan U19, 4 wins for Iran U19, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 03.03.21 ended in a 0:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.66 for Uzbekistan U19 and 0.98 for Iran U19, suggesting the primary value lies in the Iran U19 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Uzbekistan U19
22%
Draws
43%
Iran U19
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Iran U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Uzbekistan U19 picked up more points recently compared to Iran U19.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.66 vs 0.98 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Uzbekistan U19 Clean Sheet 23%
Iran U19 Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uzbekistan U19 Iran U19
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 15 16
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 4
Goals Scored 1.69 2.33
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

03.03.21 AFC Championship U19
Uzbekistan U19 vs Iran U19
0:0
09.08.19 Friendly International
Uzbekistan U19 vs Iran U19
0:2
24.10.16 AFC Championship U19
Uzbekistan U19 vs Iran U19
0:2
08.09.12 ASEAN Championship U19
Iran U19 vs Uzbekistan U19
2:1
04.09.12 ASEAN Championship U19
Uzbekistan U19 vs Iran U19
1:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Uzbekistan U19

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Iran U19

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uzbekistan U19 36 / 100
Iran U19 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uzbekistan U19 Iran U19

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Iran U19 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Uzbekistan U19 39%
Iran U19 34%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Uzbekistan U19 33%
Iran U19 45%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Uzbekistan U19 35%
Iran U19 43%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Uzbekistan U19 37%
Iran U19 41%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Uzbekistan U19 32%
Iran U19 47%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Uzbekistan U19 40%
Iran U19 49%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uzbekistan U19 attacking → ← attacking Iran U19

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uzbekistan U19 have found the net in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Iran U19 have conceded at least one goal in 33% of their last 27 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.00 goals per match.

Uzbekistan U19 remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Iran U19 suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 55
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.57
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.43