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Uzbekistan U23 vs Japan U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

Asian Games Yanmar Stadium Nagai, Osaka
Uzbekistan U23 Logo

Uzbekistan U23

Wed, Sep 30, 2026
1 - 2
10:30 AM
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Bakhromov S.
Assist: Khamidov S.
14'
Sub
Saidnurullaev S. In: Abdurakhmonov F.
Out: Saidnurullaev S.
46'
Sub
Furuya S. In: Yokoyama Y.
Out: Furuya S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Uzbekistan U23
15%
Draws
49%
Japan U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Japan U23 lately — more wins on the board than Uzbekistan U23.
  • 49% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Japan U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U23, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Uzbekistan U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uzbekistan U23 Japan U23
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 19 26
Draws 4 3
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 2.24 2.24
Goals Conceded 1 0.61
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Asian Games
Uzbekistan U23 vs Japan U23
1:2
Jul 28, 2025 Friendly International
Uzbekistan U23 vs Japan U23
0:2
May 3, 2024 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs Uzbekistan U23
1:0
Jun 15, 2022 AFC Asian Cup U23
Uzbekistan U23 vs Japan U23
2:0
Jan 19, 2018 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs Uzbekistan U23
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uzbekistan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakhromov S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Ishibashi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uzbekistan U23 30 / 100
Japan U23 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uzbekistan U23 Japan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Uzbekistan U23 scored in 82% of their last 34 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Uzbekistan U23 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Japan U23 let in goals in 42% of their last 33 matches.

Scoring Trends

Uzbekistan U23 VS Japan U23
1.38 Goals Scored 2.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Uzbekistan U23

(Home)
03 Oct
China U23
3 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
30 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
1 : 2
Japan U23
25 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
3 : 0
Saudi Arabia U23
22 Sept
Vietnam U23
0 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
18 Sept
Kuwait U23
0 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
Page 1 of 7

Japan U23

(Away)
03 Oct
South Korea U23
1 : 0
Japan U23
30 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
1 : 2
Japan U23
26 Sept
Japan U23
1 : 0
North Korea U23
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Korea U23 4
Vietnam U23 0
China U23 3
Thailand U23 0
Uzbekistan U23 3
Saudi Arabia U23 0
Japan U23 1
North Korea U23 0
Semi-finals
South Korea U23 2
China U23 1
Uzbekistan U23 1
Japan U23 2
Final
South Korea U23 1
Japan U23 0
China U23 3
Uzbekistan U23 2