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Uzbekistan vs Kyrgyzstan Prediction & H2H Stats

Asia Asia

CAFA Nations Cup
Uzbekistan Logo

Uzbekistan

4 - 0
FT
Kyrgyzstan Logo

Kyrgyzstan

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Merk K.
20' Event
Mozgovoy A.
Assist: Alikulov K.
32'
Beksulov A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-0. This leg finished 4-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Uzbekistan
20%
Draws
36%
Kyrgyzstan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uzbekistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Uzbekistan lately — more wins on the board than Kyrgyzstan.
  • Win probability leans Kyrgyzstan's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Uzbekistan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Uzbekistan, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Uzbekistan have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Uzbekistan Clean Sheet 19%
Kyrgyzstan Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 19 6
Draws 7 10
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.67 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.24 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2025 CAFA Nations Cup
Uzbekistan vs Kyrgyzstan
4:0
Mar 20, 2025 World Championship
Uzbekistan vs Kyrgyzstan
1:0
Sep 10, 2024 World Championship
Kyrgyzstan vs Uzbekistan
2:3
Dec 25, 2023 Friendly International
Kyrgyzstan vs Uzbekistan
1:4
Mar 25, 2022 Friendly International
Uzbekistan vs Kyrgyzstan
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uzbekistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Mozgovoy A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sergeev I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.62

Kyrgyzstan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uzbekistan 24 / 100
Kyrgyzstan 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kyrgyzstan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uzbekistan's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Kyrgyzstan has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Uzbekistan remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Uzbekistan VS Kyrgyzstan
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.86
75% Over 1.5 29%
63% Over 2.5 29%
50% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Uzbekistan

(Home)
01 Oct
Uzbekistan
4 : 1
Syria
24 Sept
Uzbekistan
3 : 1
Iran
27 Jun
D.R. Congo
3 : 1
Uzbekistan
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0
Uzbekistan
18 Jun
Uzbekistan
1 : 3
Colombia
Page 1 of 7

Kyrgyzstan

(Away)
28 Sept
Kyrgyzstan
5 : 0
Maldives
09 Jun
Kyrgyzstan
0 : 0
Palestine
06 Jun
Kyrgyzstan
0 : 0
Palestine
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
25 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
0 : 1
Equatorial Guinea
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uzbekistan 3 2 1 0 7:2 7
2 Oman 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
3 Turkmenistan 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
4 Kyrgyzstan 3 0 1 2 2:7 1
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iran 3 2 1 0 8:3 7
2 India 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
3 Tajikistan 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
4 Afghanistan 3 0 1 2 1:5 1
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - CAFA Nations Cup (Play Offs)