Sport Picks
V-Varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J1 League Peace Stadium, Nagasaki 
Match Events
3'
3'
Iwasaki Y.
20'
20'
Sub
Arai I. In: Sekiguchi M.
Out: Arai I.
37'
37'
Nagakura M.
Assist: Bangnagande K.
AI Match Summary
The J1 League game between V-Varen Nagasaki and FC Tokyo finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Tokyo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
20%
60%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Tokyo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
60%
/ High Confidence
- V-Varen Nagasaki haven't matched FC Tokyo's recent run of results.
- Model gives FC Tokyo a 60% chance of winning this.
- Regular J1 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 20%
FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | V-Varen Nagasaki | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 18 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 16 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.96 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 0.96 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo
0:3
Jun 22, 2022 Emperors Cup
FC Tokyo vs V-Varen Nagasaki
2:3
Jan 21, 2020 Club Friendly
FC Tokyo vs V-Varen Nagasaki
0:1
Jul 27, 2018 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs V-Varen Nagasaki
0:1
Apr 8, 2018 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo
2:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
FC Tokyo Compare
Top Goalscorer Nagakura M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Homma S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
V-Varen Nagasaki 10 / 100
FC Tokyo 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
V-Varen Nagasaki FC Tokyo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FC Tokyo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
V-Varen Nagasaki found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
V-Varen Nagasaki has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
FC Tokyo let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.
Scoring Trends
V-Varen Nagasaki VS FC Tokyo
1 Goals Scored 2.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Home) 11 Oct
Chiba
1 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
02 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 2 Gamba Osaka
29 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
0 : 3 FC Tokyo
26 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
3 : 2 Ehime
Page 1 of 3
FC Tokyo
(Away) 10 Oct
FC Tokyo
3 : 0 Urawa Reds
07 Oct
FC Tokyo
4 : 0 Shonan Bellmare
29 Sept
Ehime
0 : 2 FC Tokyo
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
Gamba Osaka
0 : 2 FC Tokyo
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Ehime
0 : 2 FC Tokyo
12 Sept
Gamba Osaka
0 : 2 FC Tokyo
02 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 1 FC Tokyo
29 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
0 : 3 FC Tokyo
15 Aug
Vissel Kobe
2 : 2 FC Tokyo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:6 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:14 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8:9 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 19 | Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:19 | 5 |
| 20 | Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4:14 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
