Sport Picks
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J1 League Peace Stadium, Nagasaki 
Match Events
36'
36'
Hatsuse R.
46'
46'
Sub
Takahata K. In: Yoneda S.
Out: Takahata K.
46'
46'
Sub
Kurata S. In: Jebali I.
Out: Kurata S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this J1 League matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Gamba Osaka have won more games recently than V-Varen Nagasaki.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular J1 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 20%
Gamba Osaka Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | V-Varen Nagasaki | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 16 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.18 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.68 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 2, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka
2:2
Apr 25, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka
1:2
Mar 8, 2026 J1 League
Gamba Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
3:2
Feb 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Gamba Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
5:5
Jan 22, 2020 Club Friendly
Gamba Osaka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Top Goalscorer Yasuda K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Matheus Jesus
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Gamba Osaka Compare
Top Goalscorer Hummet D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Jebali I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
V-Varen Nagasaki 32 / 100
Gamba Osaka 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
V-Varen Nagasaki Gamba Osaka
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 5.00 goals.
V-Varen Nagasaki's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Gamba Osaka has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Recent resilience: V-Varen Nagasaki stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
V-Varen Nagasaki VS Gamba Osaka
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Home) 07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
09 Sept
Kochi United
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
02 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 2 Gamba Osaka
29 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
0 : 3 FC Tokyo
26 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
3 : 2 Ehime
Page 1 of 3
Gamba Osaka
(Away) 09 Oct
Kashima Antlers
2 : 0 Gamba Osaka
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4 Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Gamba Osaka
5 : 0 Tokushima
20 Sept
Gamba Osaka
0 : 1 Vissel Kobe
15 Sept
Gamba Osaka
4 : 1 Cong An Ha Noi
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Kashima Antlers
2 : 0 Gamba Osaka
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4 Gamba Osaka
06 Sept
Chiba
2 : 0 Gamba Osaka
02 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 2 Gamba Osaka
22 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
3 : 1 Gamba Osaka
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20:6 | 17 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 19 | Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 20 | Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:18 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
