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Stadium Background

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League Peace Stadium, Nagasaki
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Thiago
29' Event
Thiago
Assist: Iwasaki Y.
34'
Joao Pedro

AI Match Summary

The J1 League game between V-Varen Nagasaki and Kyoto finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward V-Varen Nagasaki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
V-Varen Nagasaki
15%
Draws
39%
Kyoto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Kyoto have managed 1.11 goals a game lately — V-Varen Nagasaki are scoring more at 1.18.
  • V-Varen Nagasaki are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 20%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric V-Varen Nagasaki Kyoto
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 2 2
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 1.18 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
2:1
May 23, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:0
Mar 18, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
1:2
Oct 2, 2021 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
2:0
Jul 3, 2021 J2 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

V-Varen Nagasaki Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Kyoto Compare

Top Goalscorer Rafael Elias
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

V-Varen Nagasaki 36 / 100
Kyoto 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
V-Varen Nagasaki Kyoto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kyoto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

V-Varen Nagasaki found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

V-Varen Nagasaki has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

V-Varen Nagasaki VS Kyoto
1 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

V-Varen Nagasaki

(Home)
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0
V-Varen Nagasaki
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1
Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
09 Sept
Kochi United
0 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6

Kyoto

(Away)
10 Oct
Kyoto
0 : 1
Machida Zelvia
03 Oct
Machida Zelvia
1 : 0
Kyoto
23 Sept
Kyoto
1 : 0
Fujieda MYFC
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
15 Sept
Daejeon
1 : 0
Kyoto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashiwa Reysol 9 7 0 2 21:14 21
2 Machida Zelvia 9 6 2 1 22:10 20
3 FC Tokyo 9 6 2 1 17:8 20
4 Vissel Kobe 9 6 1 2 14:9 19
5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 20:6 17
6 Kashima Antlers 9 5 1 3 19:16 16
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
8 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 16:12 13
9 Okayama 9 4 1 4 12:12 13
10 Urawa Reds 9 4 0 5 16:21 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 9 3 3 3 7:12 12
12 Shimizu S-Pulse 8 3 1 4 6:8 10
13 Mito 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
14 Kyoto 9 2 2 5 11:16 8
15 V-Varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 10:15 8
16 Avispa Fukuoka 9 2 1 6 11:13 7
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 7:14 6
18 Gamba Osaka 9 1 3 5 8:16 6
19 Verdy 8 0 4 4 4:12 4
20 Chiba 8 1 1 6 7:18 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)