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Stadium Background

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Peace Stadium, Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki Logo

V-Varen Nagasaki

1 - 2
FT
Nagoya Grampus Logo

Nagoya Grampus

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Thiago
Assist: Hasegawa M.
34' Event
Nagai K.
Assist: Sugiura S.
46'
Sub
Mori S. In: Koda H.
Out: Mori S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nagoya Grampus in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nagoya Grampus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
V-Varen Nagasaki
6%
Draws
4%
Nagoya Grampus
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to V-Varen Nagasaki lately — more wins on the board than Nagoya Grampus.
  • Win probability leans V-Varen Nagasaki's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 68%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric V-Varen Nagasaki Nagoya Grampus
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 2 3
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:3
Sep 15, 2018 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs V-Varen Nagasaki
3:4
May 12, 2018 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
3:0
Oct 21, 2017 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

V-Varen Nagasaki Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Nagoya Grampus Compare

Top Goalscorer Nagai K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

V-Varen Nagasaki 95 / 100
Nagoya Grampus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
V-Varen Nagasaki Nagoya Grampus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VVA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: V-Varen Nagasaki scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Nagoya Grampus conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Away concern: Nagoya Grampus has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

V-Varen Nagasaki VS Nagoya Grampus
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

V-Varen Nagasaki

(Home)
17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2
V-Varen Nagasaki
14 Jul
Nijmegen
3 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
06 Jun
Mito
0 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
30 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 0
Mito
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0
V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6

Nagoya Grampus

(Away)
25 Jul
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
1 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
21 Jul
FC Tokyo
2 : 1
Nagoya Grampus
06 Jun
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1
Nagoya Grampus
30 May
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 2
Machida Zelvia
23 May
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4 : 2
Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
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League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121
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