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Vado vs Castanese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Di Renzo L.
32' Event
Lo Bosco L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Vado and Castanese finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Vado
30%
Draws
23%
Castanese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vado come out ahead of Castanese on wins alone.
  • 23% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Vado Clean Sheet 22%
Castanese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vado Castanese
Matches Played 45 30
Wins 28 5
Draws 8 11
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.87 1
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.92 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Vado vs Castanese
2:0
Dec 11, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Castanese vs Vado
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vado Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Renzo L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lo Bosco L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.96

Castanese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vado 32 / 100
Castanese 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vado Castanese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castanese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vado's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 45 recent games.

Castanese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Castanese's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Vado VS -
2.63 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vado

(Home)
12 Sept
Vado
0 : 1
Campobasso
06 Sept
Reggiana
3 : 1
Vado
02 Sept
Spezia
3 : 0
Vado
28 Aug
Pianese
0 : 0
Vado
21 Aug
Vado
2 : 0
Atalanta U23
Page 1 of 9

Castanese

(Away)
14 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Castanese
07 May
Ligorna
2 : 1
Castanese
30 Apr
Castanese
1 : 1
Stresa Vergante
23 Apr
Vado
2 : 0
Castanese
16 Apr
Castanese
3 : 3
AC Chieri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)