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Valenzana vs Asti Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

75' Event
Palazzolo N.

AI Match Summary

Valenzana in this Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Valenzana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Valenzana
15%
Draws
59%
Asti Calcio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Asti Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Valenzana lately — more wins on the board than Asti Calcio.
  • Asti Calcio are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Valenzana Clean Sheet 16%
Asti Calcio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valenzana Asti Calcio
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 6
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.93 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Valenzana vs Asti Calcio
1:0
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Asti Calcio vs Valenzana
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valenzana Compare

Top Goalscorer Palazzolo N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Asti Calcio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valenzana 28 / 100
Asti Calcio 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valenzana Asti Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Asti Calcio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valenzana scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Asti Calcio let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Valenzana remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Valenzana VS Asti Calcio
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Valenzana

(Home)
12 Sept
Millesimo
2 : 1
Valenzana
06 Sept
Valenzana
1 : 2
Alessandria
03 May
Valenzana
2 : 3
Chisola
26 Apr
Cairese
4 : 0
Valenzana
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 6

Asti Calcio

(Away)
12 Sept
Asti Calcio
2 : 0
Gozzano
06 Sept
Sestri Levante
2 : 0
Asti Calcio
10 May
Cairese
0 : 1
Asti Calcio
03 May
Club Milano
4 : 1
Asti Calcio
26 Apr
Asti Calcio
1 : 1
Ligorna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)