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Valenzana vs Ligorna - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Piredda M.

AI Match Summary

Ligorna in this Serie D - Group A matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ligorna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Valenzana
20%
Draws
57%
Ligorna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ligorna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ligorna lately — more wins on the board than Valenzana.
  • Model gives Ligorna a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ligorna have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Valenzana Clean Sheet 11%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valenzana Ligorna
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 17
Draws 6 6
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.17 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.6 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Valenzana vs Ligorna
0:1
Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Valenzana vs Ligorna
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Valenzana
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valenzana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ligorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Piredda M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valenzana 22 / 100
Ligorna 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valenzana Ligorna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ligorna Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valenzana's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Ligorna's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.33 goals as a typical output.

Valenzana has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Valenzana VS Ligorna
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Valenzana

(Home)
01 Nov
Celle Varazze
2 : 1
Valenzana
28 Oct
Valenzana
3 : 0
AS Biellese
25 Oct
Valenzana
0 : 1
Ligorna
18 Oct
AS Biellese
4 : 1
Valenzana
11 Oct
Valenzana
1 : 1
Sanremese
Page 1 of 6

Ligorna

(Away)
01 Nov
Ligorna
0 : 0
Sestri Levante
25 Oct
Valenzana
0 : 1
Ligorna
18 Oct
Ligorna
1 : 2
Bra
11 Oct
Gozzano
0 : 4
Ligorna
04 Oct
Ligorna
2 : 1
Saluzzo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alessandria 10 9 0 1 21:10 27
2 Chisola 10 6 2 2 24:12 20
3 AS Biellese 10 6 2 2 21:11 20
4 Ligorna 10 5 2 3 17:12 17
5 Derthona FbC 10 4 4 2 14:14 16
6 Millesimo 10 5 1 4 17:11 16
7 Imperia Calcio 10 4 3 3 13:11 15
8 Asti Calcio 10 4 2 4 11:12 14
9 Gozzano 10 4 2 4 12:15 14
10 Sanremese 10 3 5 2 12:9 14
11 Saluzzo 10 2 6 2 10:10 12
12 Borgosesia Calcio 10 3 3 4 13:15 12
13 GSD Lascaris 10 3 2 5 9:14 11
14 Fezzanese 10 3 1 6 8:15 10
15 Bra 10 2 4 4 8:14 10
16 Sestri Levante 10 2 4 4 7:10 10
17 Valenzana 10 1 2 7 10:18 5
18 Celle Varazze 10 1 1 8 5:19 4
Promotion - Serie D - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A (Play Out)