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Valenzana vs Ligorna Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

49'
Vuthaj D.
59' Event
Doria A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Valenzana and Ligorna finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valenzana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Valenzana
20%
Draws
70%
Ligorna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ligorna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ligorna come out ahead of Valenzana on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Valenzana Clean Sheet 10%
Ligorna Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valenzana Ligorna
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 8 18
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 0.93 2
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Valenzana vs Ligorna
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Ligorna vs Valenzana
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valenzana Compare

Top Goalscorer Doria A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ligorna Compare

Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valenzana 30 / 100
Ligorna 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valenzana Ligorna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valenzana found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (27 games).

Ligorna has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Valenzana went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valenzana VS Ligorna
0.88 Goals Scored 2.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Valenzana

(Home)
27 Sept
Valenzana
1 : 2
Borgosesia Calcio
20 Sept
Asti Calcio
2 : 2
Valenzana
16 Sept
Valenzana
0 : 1
GSD Lascaris
12 Sept
Millesimo
2 : 1
Valenzana
06 Sept
Valenzana
1 : 2
Alessandria
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Ligorna

(Away)
27 Sept
Chisola
1 : 2
Ligorna
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
AS Biellese
3 : 1
Ligorna
06 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 2
Sanremese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)