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Valmiera 2 vs Ogre United Prediction & H2H Stats

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1. Liga 2024 Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs, Valmiera
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Match Events

19' Event
Lucas Aruba
21'
Penkevics K.
45' Event
Stupelis O.

AI Match Summary

Valmiera 2 in this 1. Liga 2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Valmiera 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Valmiera 2
30%
Draws
31%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Valmiera 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Ogre United haven't matched Valmiera 2's recent run of results.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Valmiera 2 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Valmiera 2 Clean Sheet 20%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valmiera 2 Ogre United
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 11 6
Draws 6 5
Losses 13 21
Goals Scored 1.53 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.47 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.98 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2024 1. Liga
Valmiera 2 vs Ogre United
3:0
May 26, 2024 1. Liga
Ogre United vs Valmiera 2
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valmiera 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Stupelis O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Aruba
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.52
Avg xA / game 0.99

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valmiera 2 76 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valmiera 2 Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valmiera 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United let in goals in 91% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Valmiera 2 scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Valmiera 2 remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Ogre United
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 2.75
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Valmiera 2

(Home)
10 Nov
Valmiera 2
0 : 0
Leevon PPK
02 Nov
Valmiera 2
2 : 0
Alberts JDFS
27 Oct
Valmiera 2
2 : 3
Skanste
18 Oct
Valmiera 2
2 : 2
Riga FC 2
05 Oct
Super Nova
4 : 1
Valmiera 2
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Ogre United

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Super Nova 26 21 2 3 65:11 65
2 RFS 2 26 20 3 3 71:18 63
3 Alberts JDFS 26 19 1 6 53:21 58
4 Riga FC 2 26 13 9 4 59:26 48
5 Skanste 26 12 5 9 39:28 41
6 Valmiera 2 26 10 4 12 41:39 34
7 Marupe 26 9 6 11 25:44 33
8 Leevon PPK 26 9 4 13 36:38 31
9 AFA Olaine 26 8 6 12 45:50 30
10 JFK Ventspils 26 8 6 12 32:37 30
11 Ogre United 26 7 8 11 37:44 29
12 Tukums 2000 2 26 5 4 17 25:68 19
13 FK Smiltene 26 4 5 17 24:62 17
14 Rezekne 26 3 5 18 18:84 14
Promotion - Virsliga 2025 (Main)
Promotion - 1. Liga 2024 (Promotion)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2024 (Relegation)