Sport Picks

Latvia

Nakotnes liga

Valmiera

4 - 0

FK Smiltene

Our Tip

Match Events

34'

Lopes G.

Assist: Kayramani F.

56'

Yamamura T.

68'

Dembele M.

Assist: Stepanovs V.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Valmiera in this Nakotnes liga matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Valmiera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Valmiera

Draws

FK Smiltene

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Valmiera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Valmiera lately — more wins on the board than FK Smiltene.
Win probability leans Valmiera's way, sitting at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Valmiera have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Valmiera Clean Sheet 68%

FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Valmiera	FK Smiltene
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	16	4
Draws	3	7
Losses	9	19
Goals Scored	2.25	1.38
Goals Conceded	0.88	2.25
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 22, 2026 Latvian Cup

FK Smiltene vs Valmiera

Possession: 43% - 47% Cards: 4 - 0

1:4

Apr 12, 2026 Nakotnes liga

Valmiera vs FK Smiltene

Possession: 44% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

4:0

Aug 12, 2017 Nakotnes liga

Valmiera vs FK Smiltene

Possession: 47% - 45% Cards: 4 - 2

4:2

Apr 22, 2017 Nakotnes liga

FK Smiltene vs Valmiera

Possession: 41% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

1:6

Oct 29, 2016 Nakotnes liga

FK Smiltene vs Valmiera

Possession: 59% - 53% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopes G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Yamamura T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.73

Avg xA / game 1.13

FK Smiltene Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valmiera 95 / 100

FK Smiltene 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Valmiera FK Smiltene

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAL Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valmiera found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

FK Smiltene let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Valmiera went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valmiera VS FK Smiltene

2.25 Goals Scored 1.38

0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25

88% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Metta	12	10	1	1	42:11	31
2	Valmiera	12	9	2	1	32:12	29
3	Riga Mariners	13	8	4	1	26:12	28
4	Leevon PPK	13	8	3	2	22:16	27
5	Alberts JDFS	12	6	2	4	25:20	20
6	Marupe	12	6	1	5	22:15	19
7	Super Nova 2	12	5	4	3	19:17	19
8	Riga FC 2	12	5	1	6	19:22	16
9	Skanste	12	4	1	7	20:24	13
10	JFK Ventspils	12	2	4	6	15:20	10
11	RFS 2	12	2	3	7	15:26	9
12	Tukums 2000 2	12	2	2	8	16:31	8
13	Rezekne	12	1	2	9	10:36	5
14	FK Smiltene	12	0	4	8	12:33	4