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Valmiera vs Marupe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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1. Liga
Valmiera Logo

Valmiera

4 - 1
FT
Marupe Logo

Marupe

Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Kayramani F.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Buss R.
Assist: Yamamura T.
47' Event
Kayramani F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Valmiera in this 1. Liga matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Valmiera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Valmiera
35%
Draws
37%
Marupe
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Marupe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Valmiera have won more games recently than Marupe.
  • Model gives Marupe a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular 1. Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Valmiera Clean Sheet 16%
Marupe Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valmiera Marupe
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 12
Draws 5 3
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 2.55 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 1. Liga
Valmiera vs Marupe
4:1
Apr 18, 2026 1. Liga
Marupe vs Valmiera
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Buss R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kayramani F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Marupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Avdejevs D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valmiera 28 / 100
Marupe 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valmiera Marupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marupe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valmiera found the back of the net in 97% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Marupe conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Valmiera went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valmiera VS Marupe
3.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Valmiera

(Home)
18 Oct
Valmiera
2 : 2
Tukums 2000 2
10 Oct
Valmiera
1 : 1
Super Nova 2
19 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 4
Riga Mariners
12 Sept
Alberts JDFS
1 : 2
Valmiera
05 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 2
FK Metta
Page 1 of 6

Marupe

(Away)
18 Oct
JFK Ventspils
0 : 0
Marupe
10 Oct
RFS 2
2 : 3
Marupe
20 Sept
Marupe
0 : 0
Riga FC 2
12 Sept
Marupe
5 : 0
Tukums 2000 2
29 Aug
Marupe
0 : 2
Alberts JDFS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Metta 23 19 3 1 96:18 60
2 Valmiera 23 16 5 2 63:26 53
3 Leevon PPK 23 16 5 2 49:27 53
4 Riga Mariners 23 15 5 3 54:30 50
5 Alberts JDFS 23 12 5 6 46:33 41
6 Marupe 23 10 3 10 37:34 33
7 Riga FC 2 23 8 6 9 36:39 30
8 Skanste 23 8 2 13 46:48 26
9 Super Nova 2 23 6 8 9 30:36 26
10 FK Smiltene 23 5 5 13 34:61 20
11 Tukums 2000 2 23 5 4 14 31:65 19
12 RFS 2 23 5 3 15 37:65 18
13 JFK Ventspils 23 3 7 13 21:45 16
14 Rezekne 23 1 3 19 17:70 6
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