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Valur vs Afturelding

Iceland Iceland

League Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Haraldsson T.
68' Event
Heimisson L.
73' Event
Haraldsson T.

AI Match Summary

The League Cup game between Valur and Afturelding finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valur.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Valur
6%
Draws
90%
Afturelding
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Afturelding

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Afturelding come out ahead of Valur on wins alone.
  • Afturelding are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Cup games in League Cup usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Valur have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Valur Clean Sheet 10%
Afturelding Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valur Afturelding
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 9 17
Draws 2 4
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 1 2.88
Goals Conceded 1.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 League Cup
Valur vs Afturelding
4:0
Aug 26, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Afturelding
4:3
May 29, 2025 Besta deild karla
Afturelding vs Valur
0:2
May 17, 2024 Icelandic Cup
Afturelding vs Valur
1:3
Mar 13, 2021 League Cup
Valur vs Afturelding
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valur Compare

Top Goalscorer Haraldsson T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Heimisson L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Afturelding Compare

Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valur 10 / 100
Afturelding 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valur Afturelding

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afturelding has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Valur scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Valur went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valur VS Afturelding
1 Goals Scored 2.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Stjarnan541017:613
2Keflavik531113:1010
3Kopavogur531110:1210
4Fram520317:116
5Vestri511310:144
6Aegir50053:170
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Thor Akureyri431014:310
2Akranes42117:57
3Valur42028:76
4Afturelding42024:106
5Grotta40042:100
6Volsungur00000:00
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1KR Reykjavik531116:610
2Vikingur Reykjavik53116:310
3Njardvik52218:98
4IR Reykjavik521211:137
5KA Akureyri51135:74
6Grindavik50235:132
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Fylkir540113:512
2Throttur430111:89
3Leiknir Reykjavik52037:136
4Hafnarfjordur51138:64
5IBV Vestmannaeyjar31115:54
6Breidablik41033:103