Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Valur W vs Stjarnan W

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild Women Hlíðarendi Stadium
Fri, Jul 10, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Valur W play Stjarnan W in the Besta deild Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Valur W averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Stjarnan W averaged 2.55 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. In past meetings, Valur W won 1, Stjarnan W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 29, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Valur W and 1.63 for Stjarnan W. This points to a Stjarnan W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Valur W
19%
Draws
50%
Stjarnan W
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Stjarnan W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Valur W picked up more points recently compared to Stjarnan W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Valur W Clean Sheet 14%
Stjarnan W Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valur W Stjarnan W
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 8 15
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.37 2.55
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Besta deild Women
Stjarnan W vs Valur W
2:0
Oct 6, 2025 Besta deild Women
Valur W vs Stjarnan W
1:3
Aug 13, 2025 Besta deild Women
Valur W vs Stjarnan W
4:2
May 3, 2025 Besta deild Women
Stjarnan W vs Valur W
1:0
Aug 9, 2024 Besta deild Women
Stjarnan W vs Valur W
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valur W 31 / 100
Stjarnan W 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valur W Stjarnan W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Stjarnan W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Valur W attacking → ← attacking Stjarnan W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valur W scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Stjarnan W let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Valur W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Stjarnan W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 50
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Breidablik W970225:1121
2Hafnarfjordur W962124:1220
3Stjarnan W952216:817
4IBV Vestmannaeyjar W942313:1614
5Throttur W941411:913
6Grindavik/Njardvik W933311:1412
7Vikingur Reykjavik W931517:2310
8Valur W92348:119
9Thor/KA W913513:196
10Fram W91178:234