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USA

MLS Next Pro Swangard Stadium

Tacoma Defiance

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 play Tacoma Defiance in the MLS Next Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vancouver Whitecaps 2 averaged 1.76 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. Tacoma Defiance averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. In past meetings, Vancouver Whitecaps 2 won 3, Tacoma Defiance won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Vancouver Whitecaps 2 and 1.88 for Tacoma Defiance. This points to a Vancouver Whitecaps 2 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2

15%

Draws

40%

Tacoma Defiance

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vancouver Whitecaps 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 picked up more points recently compared to Tacoma Defiance.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 84%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 47%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Tacoma Defiance Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 76%

Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	Tacoma Defiance
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	11	11
Draws	0	0
Losses	18	18
Goals Scored	1.76	1.45
Goals Conceded	2.17	1.86
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 MLS Next Pro

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 vs Tacoma Defiance

Possession: 49% - 55% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Apr 12, 2026 MLS Next Pro

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 vs Tacoma Defiance

Possession: 54% - 48% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Sep 5, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps 2

Possession: 50% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

1:3

May 15, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 vs Tacoma Defiance

Possession: 57% - 46% Cards: 4 - 4

5:0

Apr 7, 2025 MLS Next Pro

Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps 2

Possession: 53% - 42% Cards: 2 - 4

5:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Tacoma Defiance Compare

Top Goalscorer Hawkins S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Bronnik M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 43 / 100

Tacoma Defiance 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 Tacoma Defiance

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vancouver Whitecaps 2 or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21.5%

2.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.4%

1.39

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 attacking → ← attacking Tacoma Defiance

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Tacoma Defiance let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Vancouver Whitecaps 2 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tacoma Defiance lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 33

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew 2	17	12	5	31:27	34
2	New York Red Bulls II	17	10	7	39:24	32
3	New England Revolution II	16	11	5	21:18	31
4	New York City II	15	8	7	24:23	25
5	Philadelphia Union II	17	8	9	21:21	24
6	CT United FC	16	8	8	28:29	22
7	Toronto FC II	17	7	10	25:32	22
8	FC Cincinnati 2	16	5	11	15:29	14

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	16	12	4	41:22	34
2	Chattanooga	17	11	6	33:28	31
3	Orlando City B	17	10	7	37:31	30
4	Atlanta United 2	16	8	8	34:25	27
5	Chicago Fire II	16	8	8	24:24	24
6	Huntsville City	16	7	9	29:35	21
7	Carolina Core	18	5	13	21:31	17
8	Inter Miami II	15	1	14	13:37	5

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Portland Timbers 2	17	10	7	23:22	32
2	Ventura County	18	10	8	32:27	29
3	San Jose Earthquakes II	15	9	6	37:18	28
4	Los Angeles FC 2	16	9	7	28:28	28
5	Real Monarchs	17	9	8	27:30	23
6	Tacoma Defiance	17	7	10	18:24	21
7	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	18	6	12	24:38	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Austin FC II	16	13	3	34:13	40
2	Houston Dynamo 2	15	12	3	35:13	34
3	St. Louis City 2	17	10	7	28:28	29
4	Minnesota United 2	18	9	9	25:29	26
5	North Texas	15	7	8	26:20	22
6	Sporting Kansas City II	18	4	14	23:50	13
7	Colorado Rapids 2	17	2	15	15:35	9

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew 2	17	12	5	31:27	34
2	Crown Legacy	16	12	4	41:22	34
3	New York Red Bulls II	17	10	7	39:24	32
4	Chattanooga	17	11	6	33:28	31
5	New England Revolution II	16	11	5	21:18	31
6	Orlando City B	17	10	7	37:31	30
7	Atlanta United 2	16	8	8	34:25	27
8	New York City II	15	8	7	24:23	25
9	Philadelphia Union II	17	8	9	21:21	24
10	Chicago Fire II	16	8	8	24:24	24
11	CT United FC	16	8	8	28:29	22
12	Toronto FC II	17	7	10	25:32	22
13	Huntsville City	16	7	9	29:35	21
14	Carolina Core	18	5	13	21:31	17
15	FC Cincinnati 2	16	5	11	15:29	14
16	Inter Miami II	15	1	14	13:37	5

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Austin FC II	16	13	3	34:13	40
2	Houston Dynamo 2	15	12	3	35:13	34
3	Portland Timbers 2	17	10	7	23:22	32
4	Ventura County	18	10	8	32:27	29
5	St. Louis City 2	17	10	7	28:28	29
6	San Jose Earthquakes II	15	9	6	37:18	28
7	Los Angeles FC 2	16	9	7	28:28	28
8	Minnesota United 2	18	9	9	25:29	26
9	Real Monarchs	17	9	8	27:30	23
10	North Texas	15	7	8	26:20	22
11	Tacoma Defiance	17	7	10	18:24	21
12	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	18	6	12	24:38	17
13	Sporting Kansas City II	18	4	14	23:50	13
14	Colorado Rapids 2	17	2	15	15:35	9