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Vanpars vs Khalij Fars Mahshahr

Iran Iran

Division 1 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Division 1 2022/2023 encounter between Vanpars and Khalij Fars Mahshahr promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Vanpars averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in recent matches. Khalij Fars Mahshahr shows a form average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Vanpars, 0 wins for Khalij Fars Mahshahr, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 05.04.23 ended in a 2:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.54 for Vanpars and 0.80 for Khalij Fars Mahshahr, suggesting the primary value lies in the Vanpars double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Vanpars
23%
Draws
23%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Vanpars

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Vanpars picked up more points recently compared to Khalij Fars Mahshahr.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 0.80 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Vanpars Clean Sheet 26%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanpars Khalij Fars Mahshahr
Matches Played 29 24
Wins 11 5
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.14 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

05.04.23 Azadegan League
Vanpars vs Khalij Fars Mahshahr
2:0
31.10.22 Azadegan League
Khalij Fars Mahshahr vs Vanpars
0:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Vanpars

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Khalij Fars Mahshahr

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vanpars Compare

Top Goalscorer Safarzadeh A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amini M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Khalij Fars Mahshahr Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanpars 54 / 100
Khalij Fars Mahshahr 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanpars Khalij Fars Mahshahr

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanpars Win (1)
Secondary Pick Vanpars & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +24%
4.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Vanpars is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Vanpars 59%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr 18%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Khalij Fars Mahshahr will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Vanpars's attacks.

Vanpars 51%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr 24%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Vanpars to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Vanpars 54%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr 23%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Vanpars vary their attacking width.

Vanpars 57%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr 22%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Khalij Fars Mahshahr, allowing Vanpars's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Vanpars 49%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr 25%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Vanpars, while Khalij Fars Mahshahr takes risks to salvage a result.

Vanpars 62%
Khalij Fars Mahshahr 26%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vanpars attacking → ← attacking Khalij Fars Mahshahr

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanpars have found the net in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Khalij Fars Mahshahr have conceded at least one goal in 79% of their last 24 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.50 goals per match.

Vanpars remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Khalij Fars Mahshahr suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 20
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shams Azar Qazvin32217466:2470
2Esteghlal Khuzestan321415347:2157
3Saipa321510730:2255
4Fajr Sepasi321411740:2553
5Kheybar Khorramabad321216432:1652
6Mes Shahr Babak321015724:2045
7Vanpars321291132:2945
8Chadormalu321112932:3145
9Pars Janoobi Jam3211101126:3143
10Darya Babol328141026:2538
11Esteghlal Molasani32716927:4237
12Khoosheh Talai328111326:3335
13Arman Gohar327101528:4531
14Shahrdari Astara325151214:2730
15Shahrdari Hamedan326111516:2929
16Khalij Fars Mahshahr32781721:4229
17Chooka Talesh324101829:5422
18Omid Vahdat Khorasan00000:00
19Shahr Khodrou00000:00
20Qashqai Shiraz00000:00
21Shahin Bandar Ameri00000:00