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Vanuatu vs Papua New Guinea

World World

Friendly International 2024 National Stadium, Honiara
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Kepo A.
58' Event
Gunemba R.
84' Event
Kaltack J.

AI Match Summary

Papua New Guinea in this Friendly International 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Papua New Guinea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Vanuatu
15%
Draws
46%
Papua New Guinea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Papua New Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Papua New Guinea lately — more wins on the board than Vanuatu.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 17%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanuatu Papua New Guinea
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 9 10
Draws 4 6
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.27 1.37
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
2:1
Nov 23, 2025 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
2:3
Dec 21, 2024 Friendly International
Vanuatu vs Papua New Guinea
1:2
Nov 23, 2023 Pacific Games
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs Vanuatu
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vanuatu Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaltack J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Papua New Guinea Compare

Top Goalscorer Kepo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gunemba R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanuatu 36 / 100
Papua New Guinea 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanuatu Papua New Guinea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Papua New Guinea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu scored in 73% of their last 26 games.

Papua New Guinea let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Vanuatu went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vanuatu VS Papua New Guinea
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vanuatu

(Home)
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
06 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Fiji
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
20 Nov
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Solomon Islands
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Papua New Guinea

(Away)
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
20 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 0
Fiji
13 Nov
Papua New Guinea
1 : 0
Solomon Islands
21 Dec
Vanuatu
1 : 2
Papua New Guinea
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