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Vanuatu W vs New Zealand W

World World

Olympic Games Women 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vanuatu W play New Zealand W in the Olympic Games Women 2024. New Zealand W are favorites here. Recently, Vanuatu W averaged 0.88 goals scored and 2.35 conceded. New Zealand W averaged 2.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. In past meetings, Vanuatu W won 0, New Zealand W won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 13, 2024 ended 0:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Vanuatu W and 2.25 for New Zealand W. This points to a New Zealand W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Vanuatu W
15%
Draws
56%
New Zealand W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Zealand W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Vanuatu W picked up more points recently compared to New Zealand W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 2.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Vanuatu W Clean Sheet 10%
New Zealand W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanuatu W New Zealand W
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 7 12
Draws 3 4
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 0.88 2.43
Goals Conceded 2.35 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2024 Olympic Games Women
Vanuatu W vs New Zealand W
0:5
Sep 29, 2010 OFC Nations Cup Women
New Zealand W vs Vanuatu W
14:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vanuatu W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

New Zealand W Compare

Top Goalscorer Riley I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hand J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanuatu W 28 / 100
New Zealand W 52 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanuatu W New Zealand W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New Zealand W Win (2)
Secondary Pick New Zealand W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vanuatu W attacking → ← attacking New Zealand W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu W scored in 58% of their last 26 games.

New Zealand W let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 9.50 goals.

Vanuatu W went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

New Zealand W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 40
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Solomon Islands W321011:37
2Fiji W320115:66
3Papua New Guinea W311113:54
4American Samoa W30031:260
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1New Zealand W330014:09
2Samoa W32013:66
3Tonga W31022:63
4Vanuatu W30031:80