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Varberg vs Kalmar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varberg host Kalmar in the Club Friendly. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Varberg at 1.79 goals for, 1.21 against; Kalmar at 1.1 for, 1.31 against. Past meetings favor Kalmar slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 3, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.25 - 0.63) back Varberg to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Varberg
35%
Draws
24%
Kalmar
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varberg come out ahead of Kalmar on wins alone.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Varberg taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Varberg Clean Sheet 20%
Kalmar Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varberg Kalmar
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.79 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Club Friendly
Varberg vs Kalmar
0:0
Aug 10, 2025 Superettan
Kalmar vs Varberg
2:0
May 25, 2025 Superettan
Varberg vs Kalmar
0:0
Feb 22, 2025 Svenska Cupen
Kalmar vs Varberg
3:1
Jul 23, 2023 Allsvenskan
Kalmar vs Varberg
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varberg 58 / 100
Kalmar 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varberg Kalmar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varberg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varberg has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Varberg's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Kalmar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Away concern: Kalmar has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varberg VS Kalmar
1 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Varberg

(Home)
01 Nov
Varberg
2 : 2
Ljungskile
27 Oct
Landskrona
1 : 1
Varberg
19 Oct
Varberg
0 : 0
Helsingborg
10 Oct
Ostersund
1 : 1
Varberg
19 Sept
Varberg
3 : 2
Brage
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Kalmar

(Away)
02 Nov
Mjallby
0 : 0
Kalmar
29 Oct
Kalmar
0 : 1
GAIS
24 Oct
Kalmar
0 : 3
Brommapojkarna
19 Oct
Degerfors
1 : 2
Kalmar
12 Oct
Malmo FF
1 : 0
Kalmar
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