Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varberg vs Norrby

Sweden Sweden

Superettan Paskbergsvallen, Varberg
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Arlig W.
Assist: Borgelin S.
44'
Axede C.
72'
Nilsson J.

AI Match Summary

The Superettan game between Varberg and Norrby finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Varberg
20%
Draws
7%
Norrby
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varberg come out ahead of Norrby on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Varberg's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Varberg have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Varberg Clean Sheet 20%
Norrby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varberg Norrby
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 17 8
Draws 5 14
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.83 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Superettan
Norrby vs Varberg
1:2
Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Varberg vs Norrby
4:2
Jun 10, 2026 Superettan
Varberg vs Norrby
2:0
Mar 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Varberg vs Norrby
3:2
Jun 16, 2022 Club Friendly
Varberg vs Norrby
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Arlig W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Johansson N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Norrby Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varberg 67 / 100
Norrby 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varberg Norrby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varberg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Varberg scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Norrby conceded in 79% of 33 recent games.

Varberg has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varberg VS Norrby
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varberg

(Home)
19 Sept
Varberg
3 : 2
Brage
14 Sept
Norrby
1 : 2
Varberg
10 Sept
Varberg
0 : 2
Norrkoping
05 Sept
Varnamo
1 : 1
Varberg
30 Aug
Varberg
3 : 1
Oddevold
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Norrby

(Away)
20 Sept
Helsingborg
0 : 0
Norrby
14 Sept
Norrby
1 : 2
Varberg
09 Sept
Ljungskile
2 : 1
Norrby
05 Sept
Norrby
1 : 3
Landskrona
31 Aug
Sundsvall
1 : 0
Norrby
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norrkoping 25 17 4 4 48:16 55
2 Falkenberg 25 13 6 6 46:33 45
3 Varberg 25 13 5 7 44:33 44
4 Ostersund 25 11 10 4 33:24 43
5 Landskrona 25 11 7 7 39:26 40
6 Sandviken 25 10 7 8 43:33 37
7 Oddevold 25 9 9 7 38:34 36
8 Oster 25 11 3 11 38:38 36
9 Nordic United 25 9 9 7 38:40 36
10 Helsingborg 25 8 6 11 36:45 30
11 Varnamo 25 8 5 12 33:45 29
12 Ljungskile 25 6 7 12 31:38 25
13 Norrby 25 4 12 9 28:35 24
14 Orebro 25 5 9 11 27:39 24
15 Brage 25 5 8 12 39:48 23
16 Sundsvall 25 6 1 18 19:53 19
Promotion - Allsvenskan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)