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Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Meljichi A.
46'
Sub
Rodrigues G. In: Ferreira Pires M. A.
Out: Rodrigues G.
46'
Sub
Krstevski V. In: Tamba F.
Out: Krstevski V.

AI Match Summary

The 1. MFL game between Vardar and Shkendija Tetovo finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shkendija Tetovo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Vardar
30%
Draws
27%
Shkendija Tetovo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Shkendija Tetovo come out ahead of Vardar on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Vardar's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Vardar Clean Sheet 68%
Shkendija Tetovo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vardar Shkendija Tetovo
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 17 19
Draws 4 4
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.14 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
0:2
May 23, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
3:0
Mar 5, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
0:1
Oct 27, 2025 1. MFL
Shkendija Tetovo vs Vardar
0:1
Mar 14, 2025 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vardar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Shkendija Tetovo Compare

Top Goalscorer Tamba F.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vardar 86 / 100
Shkendija Tetovo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vardar Shkendija Tetovo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vardar has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Vardar scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Shkendija Tetovo let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Vardar VS Shkendija Tetovo
2.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vardar

(Home)
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1
Vardar
Page 1 of 6

Shkendija Tetovo

(Away)
03 Oct
Llapi
1 : 0
Shkendija Tetovo
26 Sept
Kamjani
0 : 3
Shkendija Tetovo
18 Sept
Shkendija Tetovo
4 : 1
Bashkimi
11 Sept
Arsimi
2 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
04 Sept
Shkendija Tetovo
1 : 3
Tikves
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shkendija Tetovo 8 6 1 1 20:8 19
2 Struga 8 5 2 1 19:5 17
3 Tikves 9 4 4 1 20:7 16
4 Vardar 8 4 2 2 14:8 14
5 Shkendija Haracine 8 4 1 3 6:9 13
6 Sileks 9 2 4 3 14:11 10
7 Bregalnica Stip 9 3 1 5 11:16 10
8 Arsimi 9 2 3 4 7:20 9
9 Bashkimi 8 1 1 6 7:25 4
10 FK Skopje 8 0 3 5 3:12 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2027/2028 (Main)