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Varea vs Agoncillo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varea host Agoncillo in the Tercera RFEF - Group 16. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Varea at 1.28 goals for, 0.69 against; Agoncillo at 1.81 for, 1.5 against. Head-to-head, Varea have won 4 to Agoncillo's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 12, 2026, ending 3:1. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 1.38) point toward Varea. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Varea
35%
Draws
35%
Agoncillo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Varea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Varea have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Varea Clean Sheet 17%
Agoncillo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea Agoncillo
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 18 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.28 1.81
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Agoncillo
3:1
Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Agoncillo vs Varea
0:1
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Agoncillo vs Varea
2:2
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Agoncillo
3:2
Feb 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Agoncillo
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 36 / 100
Agoncillo 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea Agoncillo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Agoncillo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Agoncillo conceded in 84% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Varea stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Varea scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varea VS Agoncillo
0.38 Goals Scored 2.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
38% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
04 Oct
Oyonesa
1 : 1
Varea
27 Sept
Varea
1 : 0
CDFC La Calzada
20 Sept
Pradejon
1 : 1
Varea
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
Page 1 of 7

Agoncillo

(Away)
04 Oct
Agoncillo
2 : 0
Vianes
26 Sept
Casalarreina CF
1 : 5
Agoncillo
18 Sept
Agoncillo
3 : 5
CD Calahorra
13 Sept
Anguiano
1 : 1
Agoncillo
05 Sept
Agoncillo
1 : 1
Haro Deportivo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Haro Deportivo 5 4 1 0 12:6 13
2 Berceo 5 4 0 1 14:5 12
3 CDFC La Calzada 5 4 0 1 9:4 12
4 Alfaro 5 3 1 1 9:7 10
5 Pradejon 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
6 CD Calahorra 5 3 0 2 14:7 9
7 Agoncillo 5 2 2 1 12:8 8
8 Anguiano 6 2 2 2 8:6 8
9 Varea 5 1 4 0 4:3 7
10 San Marcial 5 1 3 1 4:4 6
11 Yague 6 2 0 4 5:11 6
12 Cenicero 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
13 Oyonesa 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
14 Comillas CF 5 1 2 2 3:5 5
15 Calasancio 5 1 2 2 7:12 5
16 River Ebro 6 1 1 4 6:15 4
17 Casalarreina CF 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
18 Vianes 5 0 1 4 5:10 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)