Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varea vs Alfaro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea Logo

Varea

1 - 0
FT
Alfaro Logo

Alfaro

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Pascual S.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 16 game between Varea and Alfaro finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Varea
15%
Draws
49%
Alfaro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alfaro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varea come out ahead of Alfaro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Varea's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Varea Clean Sheet 20%
Alfaro Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea Alfaro
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 9 4
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.06 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Alfaro
1:0
Feb 11, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Varea
1:1
Sep 24, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Alfaro
0:2
May 15, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Alfaro vs Varea
1:0
Jan 23, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Alfaro
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 42 / 100
Alfaro 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea Alfaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varea found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Alfaro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Varea went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varea VS Alfaro
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
01 Nov
Haro Deportivo
2 : 1
Varea
29 Oct
Varea
0 : 3
FC Andorra
25 Oct
Varea
1 : 0
Alfaro
18 Oct
Calasancio
0 : 1
Varea
11 Oct
Varea
1 : 0
Agoncillo
Page 1 of 7

Alfaro

(Away)
01 Nov
Alfaro
1 : 0
Comillas CF
25 Oct
Varea
1 : 0
Alfaro
18 Oct
Alfaro
1 : 0
Vianes
11 Oct
Casalarreina CF
0 : 1
Alfaro
04 Oct
Alfaro
2 : 1
CD Calahorra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Haro Deportivo 9 7 1 1 22:13 22
2 CDFC La Calzada 9 7 0 2 15:11 21
3 Alfaro 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 CD Calahorra 9 6 0 3 26:10 18
5 Berceo 9 6 0 3 21:11 18
6 Anguiano 9 5 2 2 16:7 17
7 Varea 9 4 4 1 8:5 16
8 Agoncillo 9 4 3 2 18:12 15
9 San Marcial 9 4 3 2 12:7 15
10 Oyonesa 9 4 2 3 14:11 14
11 Pradejon 9 4 1 4 10:12 13
12 Yague 9 3 0 6 9:19 9
13 Calasancio 9 2 2 5 9:18 8
14 River Ebro 9 2 1 6 9:19 7
15 Comillas CF 9 1 3 5 6:12 6
16 Cenicero 9 1 2 6 8:16 5
17 Vianes 9 1 1 7 10:17 4
18 Casalarreina CF 9 1 0 8 6:23 3
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)