Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varea vs CDFC La Calzada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Cordovin S.
86'
Perez O.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 16 game between Varea and CDFC La Calzada finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Varea
35%
Draws
41%
CDFC La Calzada
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: CDFC La Calzada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Varea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Varea here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Varea Clean Sheet 22%
CDFC La Calzada Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea CDFC La Calzada
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 9
Draws 9 6
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 1.1 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs CDFC La Calzada
1:0
Feb 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CDFC La Calzada vs Varea
1:2
Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs CDFC La Calzada
0:0
May 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs CDFC La Calzada
3:2
May 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CDFC La Calzada vs Varea
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varea Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordovin S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

CDFC La Calzada Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 32 / 100
CDFC La Calzada 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea CDFC La Calzada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CDFC La Calzada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Varea remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Varea scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: CDFC La Calzada conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Varea VS CDFC La Calzada
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
04 Oct
Oyonesa
1 : 1
Varea
27 Sept
Varea
1 : 0
CDFC La Calzada
20 Sept
Pradejon
1 : 1
Varea
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
Page 1 of 6

CDFC La Calzada

(Away)
04 Oct
CDFC La Calzada
1 : 0
Comillas CF
27 Sept
Varea
1 : 0
CDFC La Calzada
20 Sept
CDFC La Calzada
3 : 2
Vianes
13 Sept
Casalarreina CF
0 : 3
CDFC La Calzada
06 Sept
CDFC La Calzada
2 : 1
CD Calahorra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Haro Deportivo 5 4 1 0 12:6 13
2 Berceo 5 4 0 1 14:5 12
3 CDFC La Calzada 5 4 0 1 9:4 12
4 Alfaro 5 3 1 1 9:7 10
5 Pradejon 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
6 CD Calahorra 5 3 0 2 14:7 9
7 Agoncillo 5 2 2 1 12:8 8
8 Varea 5 1 4 0 4:3 7
9 San Marcial 5 1 3 1 4:4 6
10 Yague 5 2 0 3 5:8 6
11 Cenicero 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
12 Anguiano 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Oyonesa 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
14 Comillas CF 5 1 2 2 3:5 5
15 Calasancio 5 1 2 2 7:12 5
16 River Ebro 6 1 1 4 6:15 4
17 Casalarreina CF 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
18 Vianes 5 0 1 4 5:10 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)