Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varese vs Casale

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Casale in this Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Casale.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Varese
30%
Draws
23%
Casale
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Varese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varese lately — more wins on the board than Casale.
  • Model gives Varese a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Casale have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Varese Clean Sheet 68%
Casale Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varese Casale
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 5 4
Draws 15 5
Losses 10 24
Goals Scored 1.17 0.64
Goals Conceded 1.2 2.24
Expected Goals (xG) 2.10 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Varese vs Casale
1:2
Sep 13, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Varese
4:2
Mar 5, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Varese
2:1
Oct 30, 2016 Serie D - Group A
Varese vs Casale
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese 68 / 100
Casale 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varese Casale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Casale let in goals in 91% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Varese found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: Casale has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Casale
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 3
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Varese

(Home)
13 May
OltrepoVoghera
2 : 0
Varese
06 May
Varesina
2 : 1
Varese
29 Apr
Varese
1 : 1
AC Chieri
22 Apr
Varese
2 : 0
Castellazzo
15 Apr
Seregno Calcio
2 : 1
Varese
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Casale

(Away)
07 May
Casale
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
30 Apr
Chisola
2 : 1
Casale
23 Apr
Casale
2 : 2
Pinerolo
15 Apr
Sanremese
1 : 0
Casale
06 Apr
Casale
0 : 2
Castanese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gozzano 38 25 7 6 68:25 82
2 Como 38 25 6 7 58:27 81
3 Caronnese 38 21 11 6 62:30 74
4 AC Chieri 38 19 14 5 64:37 71
5 Pro Sesto 38 20 7 11 69:43 67
6 Folgore Caratese 38 14 14 10 45:39 56
7 Inveruno 38 14 10 14 44:48 52
8 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 9 15 40:39 51
9 Arconatese 38 14 8 16 37:46 50
10 Bra 38 13 10 15 45:51 49
11 Pavia 38 12 11 15 53:58 47
12 Borgaro 38 11 13 14 35:44 46
13 Olginatese 38 9 18 11 37:44 45
14 Seregno Calcio 38 10 14 14 45:54 44
15 OltrepoVoghera 38 9 16 13 34:47 43
16 Casale 38 10 12 16 41:48 42
17 Varesina 38 10 11 17 33:45 41
18 Varese 38 8 16 14 47:49 40
19 Calcio Derthona 38 5 11 22 25:62 26
20 Castellazzo 38 3 10 25 32:78 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Play Offs)