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Varesina vs Cittadella Vis Modena

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Banfi S.
55' Event
Dodaro L.
57' Event
Banfi S.

AI Match Summary

Varesina in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Varesina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Varesina
20%
Draws
51%
Cittadella Vis Modena
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cittadella Vis Modena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Cittadella Vis Modena have won more games recently than Varesina.
  • Varesina are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Varesina Clean Sheet 20%
Cittadella Vis Modena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Cittadella Vis Modena
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.1 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.31 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Varesina vs Cittadella Vis Modena
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Banfi S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maspero A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Cittadella Vis Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer Dodaro L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Defrel G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 85 / 100
Cittadella Vis Modena 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Cittadella Vis Modena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varesina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Varesina scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Cittadella Vis Modena's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 28 matches.

Varesina has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS Cittadella Vis Modena
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
27 Sept
USD Casatese
4 : 2
Varesina
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
Page 1 of 6

Cittadella Vis Modena

(Away)
27 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 1
Correggese
20 Sept
Lentigione
0 : 1
Cittadella Vis Modena
16 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 0
Varese FC
12 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
1 : 0
Tropical Coriano
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 5 5 0 0 14:1 15
2 Pro Sesto 5 4 0 1 16:4 12
3 Pro Patria 5 4 0 1 10:4 12
4 USD Casatese 5 3 1 1 10:6 10
5 Lentigione 5 3 1 1 7:5 10
6 Castellanzese 5 3 0 2 11:4 9
7 Sant'Angelo 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
8 Cittadella Vis Modena 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
9 Correggese 5 2 1 2 5:8 7
10 Varese FC 5 1 3 1 5:4 6
11 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
12 Pavia 4 0 4 0 1:1 4
13 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
14 Varesina 5 1 1 3 7:10 4
15 Oltrepo 4 1 0 3 3:9 3
16 Arconatese 5 0 2 3 3:12 2
17 Crema 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
18 US Pontedera 4 0 0 4 3:12 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)