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Varesina vs Magenta Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Gasparri M.
10' Event
Lo Monaco M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 game between Varesina and Magenta finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Varesina
30%
Draws
47%
Magenta
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Magenta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varesina come out ahead of Magenta on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Varesina Clean Sheet 20%
Magenta Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Magenta
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 11 10
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.33 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Magenta
1:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Magenta vs Varesina
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Gasparri M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Magenta Compare

Top Goalscorer Lo Monaco M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 32 / 100
Magenta 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Magenta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Magenta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (33 games).

Magenta let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Varesina went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
27 Sept
USD Casatese
4 : 2
Varesina
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
Page 1 of 7

Magenta

(Away)
04 May
Varesina
1 : 1
Magenta
27 Apr
Magenta
2 : 0
Sant'Angelo
17 Apr
Chievo
4 : 0
Magenta
13 Apr
Magenta
0 : 0
Sangiuliano City
06 Apr
Breno
1 : 3
Magenta
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ospitaletto 38 21 12 5 66:34 75
2 Pro Palazzolo 38 20 10 8 69:36 70
3 Desenzano Calvina 38 19 12 7 51:29 69
4 USD Casatese 38 19 11 8 58:34 68
5 Folgore Caratese 38 20 8 10 66:42 68
6 Varesina 38 17 13 8 61:44 64
7 Chievo 38 16 9 13 49:37 57
8 Pro Sesto 38 13 13 12 45:43 52
9 Club Milano 38 14 7 17 44:50 49
10 Sant'Angelo 38 11 15 12 41:41 48
11 Sondrio 38 12 11 15 39:51 47
12 Breno 38 11 14 13 42:53 47
13 Castellanzese 38 10 16 12 43:53 46
14 Vigasio 38 11 12 15 39:41 45
15 Sangiuliano City 38 11 12 15 39:46 45
16 Crema 38 11 11 16 48:57 44
17 Magenta 38 8 12 18 33:53 36
18 Fanfulla 38 6 14 18 28:57 32
19 Ciliverghe Mazzano 38 7 10 21 41:70 31
20 Arconatese 38 7 10 21 33:64 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 (Play Offs)