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Varesina vs Pistoiese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Motti M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Varesina and Pistoiese finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pistoiese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Varesina
15%
Draws
54%
Pistoiese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Varesina haven't matched Pistoiese's recent run of results.
  • Pistoiese are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Varesina Clean Sheet 17%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Pistoiese
Matches Played 33 37
Wins 11 26
Draws 10 7
Losses 12 4
Goals Scored 1.21 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.18 0.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Varesina vs Pistoiese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Motti M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 12 / 100
Pistoiese 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Pistoiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (33 games).

Recent resilience: Varesina stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Pistoiese has conceded goals in 46% of their last 37 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS Pistoiese
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
Page 1 of 7

Pistoiese

(Away)
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
06 Sept
Pistoiese
2 : 0
Solbiatese
22 Aug
Pistoiese
0 : 1
Siena
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 4 4 0 0 11:1 12
2 Pro Patria 4 4 0 0 10:3 12
3 Pro Sesto 4 3 0 1 10:3 9
4 Lentigione 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
5 Sant'Angelo 4 2 2 0 6:2 8
6 USD Casatese 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
8 Castellanzese 4 2 0 2 7:4 6
9 Varese FC 4 1 2 1 4:3 5
10 Varesina 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
11 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
12 Correggese 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
13 Pavia 3 0 3 0 0:0 3
14 Oltrepo 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
15 Solbiatese 4 0 2 2 1:6 2
16 Crema 4 0 1 3 1:8 1
17 Arconatese 4 0 1 3 2:11 1
18 US Pontedera 4 0 0 4 3:12 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)