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Varesina vs Seregno Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varesina play Seregno Calcio in the Serie D - Group B 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Varesina averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Seregno Calcio averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Varesina won 2, Seregno Calcio won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 6, 2023 ended 5:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Varesina and 1.13 for Seregno Calcio. This points to a Varesina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Varesina
35%
Draws
28%
Seregno Calcio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Varesina picked up more points recently compared to Seregno Calcio.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Varesina Clean Sheet 21%
Seregno Calcio Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Seregno Calcio
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 14 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Seregno Calcio
5:2
Nov 27, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Seregno Calcio vs Varesina
1:3
Feb 17, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Varesina vs Seregno Calcio
0:1
Oct 14, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Seregno Calcio vs Varesina
0:0
May 1, 2016 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Seregno Calcio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Poesio C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gasparri M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Seregno Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Bright K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 38 / 100
Seregno Calcio 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Seregno Calcio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Varesina or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Varesina attacking → ← attacking Seregno Calcio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina scored in 78% of their last 40 games.

Seregno Calcio let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Varesina went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Seregno Calcio lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 36
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Lumezzane34245567:2077
2Alcione Milano34218567:3171
3USD Casatese341611738:2659
4Arconatese34169954:3757
5Desenzano Calvina341581147:4153
6Franciacorta3413111044:4350
7Ponte San Pietro341116747:3849
8Ciserano-Bergamo341461442:4048
9Brusaporto3412111143:3847
10Varesina341371447:5046
11Villa Valle349141140:4741
12Real Calepina34718930:3339
13Folgore Caratese341091537:4639
14Seregno Calcio3410111342:5638
15Breno341071735:5037
16Varese FC34891730:4633
17Sona34691928:5627
18Caronnese34292324:6415