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Varesina vs Sondrio Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Vasil M.
90' Event
Escudero G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between Varesina and Sondrio finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sondrio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Varesina
20%
Draws
51%
Sondrio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sondrio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sondrio come out ahead of Varesina on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Sondrio's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Varesina Clean Sheet 14%
Sondrio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Sondrio
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.1 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.62
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Sondrio
0:2
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Varesina
0:2
Apr 27, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Varesina
2:0
Dec 15, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Sondrio
3:2
Apr 3, 2016 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Sondrio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Sondrio Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasil M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Escudero G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.47
Avg xA / game 0.9

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 27 / 100
Sondrio 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Sondrio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sondrio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sondrio let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Varesina found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Varesina remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS Sondrio
1.63 Goals Scored 1.86
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.57
75% Over 1.5 86%
75% Over 2.5 71%
38% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
27 Sept
USD Casatese
4 : 2
Varesina
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
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Sondrio

(Away)
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
12 Apr
Sondrio
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
02 Apr
Breno
2 : 1
Sondrio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)