Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varesina vs Sondrio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Vasil M.
90' Event
Escudero G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B game between Varesina and Sondrio finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sondrio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Varesina
20%
Draws
38%
Sondrio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Recent numbers put Varesina and Sondrio close enough that form isn't the deciding factor here.
  • Win probability leans Varesina's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Varesina Clean Sheet 20%
Sondrio Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Sondrio
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 13 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.25 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Sondrio
0:2
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Varesina
0:2
Apr 27, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Varesina
2:0
Dec 15, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Sondrio
3:2
Apr 3, 2016 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Sondrio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sondrio Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasil M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Escudero G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 42 / 100
Sondrio 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Sondrio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sondrio let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Varesina found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Varesina remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS Sondrio
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Caldiero Terme
2 : 2
Varesina
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1
Varesina
12 Apr
Varesina
0 : 1
Chievo
Page 1 of 7

Sondrio

(Away)
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
12 Apr
Sondrio
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
02 Apr
Breno
2 : 1
Sondrio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Folgore Caratese341911458:2768
2USD Casatese341613549:2861
3Chievo341861052:4360
4AC Milan U23341681062:3756
5AC Leon341411944:3453
6Brusaporto341561341:3851
7Oltrepo341581138:3650
8Scanzorosciate341114941:3347
9Villa Valle341381343:4647
10Ciserano-Bergamo3411131033:3146
11Caldiero Terme341015950:4045
12Real Calepina341191442:4742
13Castellanzese3410111341:3941
14Breno349111439:5138
15Pavia349101536:4737
16Varesina347151238:4436
17Sondrio34871937:6431
18Vogherese34282421:80-17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)