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Varginha vs Araxa

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varginha in this Mineiro 3 2021 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Varginha
35%
Draws
23%
Araxa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varginha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Araxa lately — more wins on the board than Varginha.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Araxa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Varginha, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Varginha Clean Sheet 20%
Araxa Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varginha Araxa
Matches Played 30 21
Wins 7 11
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 0.87 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 28, 2021 Mineiro 3
Araxa vs Varginha
0:0
Nov 21, 2021 Mineiro 3
Varginha vs Araxa
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varginha 31 / 100
Araxa 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varginha Araxa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varginha Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Varginha stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Varginha found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Araxa conceded in 52% of 21 recent games.

Historical meetings average 0.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Varginha VS Araxa
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varginha

(Home)
21 Jun
URT
1 : 2
Varginha
15 Jun
Varginha
2 : 2
Uberaba
08 Jun
Varginha
1 : 1
Caldense
02 Jun
Mamore
1 : 1
Varginha
28 May
Patrocinense
0 : 2
Varginha
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Araxa

(Away)
07 Nov
Mamore
2 : 1
Araxa
28 Oct
Araxa
1 : 1
Mamore
14 Oct
Nacional Uberaba
1 : 1
Araxa
08 Oct
Araxa
1 : 0
Pirapora
02 Oct
Mamore
2 : 1
Araxa
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Uberaba 3
Boston City 1
Santarritense 0
Manchester Futebol 1
America TO 1
Pocos de Caldas 1
Araxa 0
Varginha 1
Semi-finals
Uberaba 3
Manchester Futebol 0
America TO 0
Varginha 2
Final
Uberaba 3
Varginha 3