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Varginha vs Araxa

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varginha in this Mineiro 3 2021 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Varginha
39%
Draws
31%
Araxa
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Araxa lately — more wins on the board than Varginha.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Araxa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Varginha, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Varginha Clean Sheet 20%
Araxa Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varginha Araxa
Matches Played 31 20
Wins 7 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 0.63 0
Goals Conceded 1.13 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 28, 2021 Mineiro 3
Araxa vs Varginha
0:0
Nov 21, 2021 Mineiro 3
Varginha vs Araxa
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varginha 31 / 100
Araxa 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varginha Araxa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Varginha stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Varginha found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Araxa conceded in 50% of 20 recent games.

Historical meetings average 0.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Varginha VS Araxa
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varginha

(Home)
21 Jun
URT
1 : 2
Varginha
15 Jun
Varginha
2 : 2
Uberaba
08 Jun
Varginha
1 : 1
Caldense
02 Jun
Mamore
1 : 1
Varginha
28 May
Patrocinense
0 : 2
Varginha
Page 1 of 7

Araxa

(Away)
07 Nov
Mamore
2 : 1
Araxa
28 Oct
Araxa
1 : 1
Mamore
14 Oct
Nacional Uberaba
1 : 1
Araxa
08 Oct
Araxa
1 : 0
Pirapora
02 Oct
Mamore
2 : 1
Araxa
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Uberaba3
Boston City1
Santarritense0
Manchester Futebol1
America TO1
Pocos de Caldas1
Araxa0
Varginha1
Semi-finals
Uberaba3
Manchester Futebol0
America TO0
Varginha2
Final
Uberaba3
Varginha3