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Varnamo vs Falkenberg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sweden Sweden

Superettan Finnvedsvallen, Varnamo
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Andersson A.
(Penalty)
13' Event
Andersson H.
Assist: Bjornstrom A.
32'
Miftari A.

AI Match Summary

Falkenberg in this Superettan matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Falkenberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Varnamo
15%
Draws
45%
Falkenberg
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falkenberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Falkenberg have won more games recently than Varnamo.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Superettan form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Varnamo Clean Sheet 14%
Falkenberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varnamo Falkenberg
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.31 2.1
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2026 Superettan
Varnamo vs Falkenberg
1:2
May 23, 2026 Superettan
Falkenberg vs Varnamo
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Club Friendly
Varnamo vs Falkenberg
1:0
Oct 25, 2021 Superettan
Varnamo vs Falkenberg
3:2
Jul 10, 2021 Club Friendly
Varnamo vs Falkenberg
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varnamo Compare

Top Goalscorer Andersson H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Falkenberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Andersson A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varnamo 35 / 100
Falkenberg 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varnamo Falkenberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falkenberg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falkenberg let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Attacking prowess: Varnamo scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Varnamo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varnamo VS Falkenberg
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varnamo

(Home)
31 Oct
Norrby
0 : 3
Varnamo
24 Oct
Varnamo
0 : 1
Sandviken
18 Oct
Sundsvall
0 : 1
Varnamo
11 Oct
Varnamo
1 : 2
Falkenberg
19 Sept
Oddevold
1 : 2
Varnamo
Page 1 of 6

Falkenberg

(Away)
31 Oct
Falkenberg
2 : 1
Sandviken
26 Oct
Orebro
1 : 0
Falkenberg
17 Oct
Falkenberg
4 : 3
Landskrona
11 Oct
Varnamo
1 : 2
Falkenberg
18 Sept
Falkenberg
0 : 0
Ostersund
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norrkoping 29 20 5 4 61:18 65
2 Falkenberg 29 16 6 7 54:39 54
3 Varberg 29 13 9 7 48:37 48
4 Ostersund 29 12 12 5 38:29 48
5 Landskrona 29 13 8 8 48:34 47
6 Oddevold 29 12 9 8 50:38 45
7 Oster 29 14 3 12 49:45 45
8 Nordic United 29 11 9 9 45:49 42
9 Sandviken 29 11 8 10 47:38 41
10 Varnamo 29 10 5 14 38:48 35
11 Helsingborg 29 8 8 13 37:51 32
12 Ljungskile 29 7 10 12 37:42 31
13 Orebro 29 6 11 12 32:44 29
14 Norrby 29 5 12 12 31:44 27
15 Brage 29 6 8 15 46:57 26
16 Sundsvall 29 6 1 22 21:69 19
Promotion - Allsvenskan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)